Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District became vacant after Rep. Martha McSally (R) decided to run for Senate. Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatric (D) and Tucson Hispanic Chamber CEO Lea Marquez Peterson (R) were vying for McSally’s seat.
A New York Times poll conducted at the end of September showed Kirkpatrick winning the race by 11 points. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzalez have consistently said that they see the race “leaning Democratic.” Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball had said the race would “leaning Democratic” but in mid-October changed to “likely Democratic.”
Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) dropped money for TV ad buys in this race. The DCCC dropped $448,000 on ads against Marquez Peterson, while the NRCC spent $227,000 on ads opposing Kirkpatrick, Ballotpedia reported.
Marquez Peterson was endorsed by Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey and former Sen. Jon Kyl. Kirkpatrick was endorsed by various liberal organizations, including Planned Parenthood, NARAL Pro-Choice, EMILY’s List, the Human Rights Campaign, the Giffords gun control group as well as The Arizona Republic and the Arizona Daily Star.
CNN calls open #AZ02 as a Dem pickup for ex-Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who used to represent neighboring seat— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) November 7, 2018
24. Arizona District 2 - CNN is projecting Ann Kirkpatrick to beat Lea Marquez Peterson.— Yashar Ali ?? (@yashar) November 7, 2018
The media projects Kirkpatrick coming out on top.