Francesca Hong is likely recovering from the Wisconsin gubernatorial campaign, where the far-left candidate seemed like a lock to win. She fell short by 3,211 votes to David Crowley, who Wisconsin voters didn’t want but came out on top after Republicans ran a blitz on Hong’s past remarks about a host of things, including, bizarrely enough, Thanksgiving. These attacks could’ve been saved, as Hong is, at least on paper, viewed as the weaker candidate. Yet she also didn’t counterattack well, being more willing to soak up the abuse. It obviously didn’t work, but one expenditure was absent from her campaign: broadcast ads. And some are saying that it cost her the campaign (via Notus):
Francesca Hong’s Wisconsin gubernatorial campaign embraced the new era of campaigning for progressive candidates, from a social media-dominated bid to her democratic socialist-influenced policy platform.
But part of her razor-thin loss to David Crowley on Tuesday could be explained by the traditional, or a lack thereof: broadcast TV ad spending.
Despite leading the Democratic field by double-digit margins before the primary, Hong was the only active candidate to seek the governorship without running broadcast TV ads, according to ad-tracking service AdImpact.
Some strategists think the Hong campaign’s decision to focus on digital platform advertising ultimately led to its demise, costing her key parts of the electorate.
“In a primary, voters are more persuadable,” Democratic strategist Jared Leopold told NOTUS. “Especially in a smaller primary, it’s a mistake to try to narrow cast too much because you actually do need to hit a wider swath of a primary electorate, because more people are likely to change their votes at the end than in a general election.”
[…]
Exit polls show Hong won several counties helmed by colleges and certain cities like Green Bay, while Crowley swept the majority of Wisconsin’s rural districts, as well as Milwaukee County and its suburbs. Hong, however, appeared to overperform in rural counties in the state’s northwest — including St. Croix and Douglas — which also happen to sit in Minnesota media markets that saw fewer political ads on linear broadcast channels.
Even so, Hong’s lack of broadcast ads likely cost her blocs like older voters who can drive turnout, strategists say.
“It’s a mistake to not communicate with a part of the electorate,” Leopold said. “There’s still a lot of people, particularly older people, who watch a lot of TV.”
We’ll never know, but it’s hard to argue that this expenditure didn't cost her, given her margin of loss.
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