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Forecasts for the Weeks of March 9 and 16

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
ForecastPrior ObservationConsensus
Week of March 9
March 10
JOLTS - January5.0655.0285.075
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - February99.097.999.0
Wholesale Inventories - January-0.2%0.00.1
March 11
Treasury Budget - February-$191.0B-10.4-186.5
March 12
Initial Unemployment Claims295313309
Retail Sales - February0.3%-0.80.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos0.4-0.90.5
Export Prices - February-0.6%-2.9-0.1
Import Prices0.1-2.80.2
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum-0.4-0.6
Business Inventories - January 0.0%-0.30.1
March 13
Producer Price Index - February0.1%-0.80.3
PPI Core0.1-0.30.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - March (p)96.095.496.0
Week of March 16
March 16
NY Fed Manufacturing Index9.07.787.25
Industrial Production - February0.3%0.30.3
Capacity Utilizaqtion79.679.479.5
Manufacturing Output0.20.20.3
NAHB Index - March565556
March 17
Housing Starts - February1.060M1.0651.053
Building Permits1.0651.0531.065
March 18
March 19
Initial Unemployment Claims
Current Account - Q4-$104.5-100.3-101.2
Philadelphia Fed Suvery8.05.25.5
Leading Indicators - February0.2%0.20.3
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business, former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission, and five-time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award.


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