| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of February 2 | |||
| February 2 | |||
| Personal Income - December | 0.3% | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Personal Spending | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.2 |
| PCE Price Index | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.3 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Real Personal Spending | 0.2 | 0.7 | |
| PMI Manufacturing Index - January | 53.8 | 53.7 | 54.0 |
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 54.8 | 55.5 | 54.5 |
| ISM Prices | 40.0 | 38.5 | 39.5 |
| Construction Spending - December | 0.6% | -0.3 | 0.6 |
| February 3 | |||
| Factory Orders - December | -2.1% | -0.7 | -2.2 |
| Auto Sales* - January | 16.80M | 16.92 | 16.60 |
| *SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence | |||
| February 4 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 220K | 241.0 | 220 |
| PMI Services Index - January | 54.0 | 54.0 | 54.1 |
| ISM Services - January | 56.5 | 56.2 | 56.5 |
| ISM Prices | 49.3 | 49.5 | |
| ISM Business Activity | 57.6 | 57.2 | |
| February 5 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 295K | 265 | 290 |
| International Trade - December | -$39.5B | -39.0 | -37.9 |
| Productivity - Q4 (p) | 0.2% | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 1.6 | -1.0 | 1.2 |
| February 6 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 230K | 252 | 230 |
| Private | 224 | 240 | 229 |
| Unemployment | 5.6% | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Average Workweek | 34.6Hr | 34.6 | 34.6 |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | -0.2 | 0.3 |
| Consumer Credit - December | $15.3B | 14.1 | 15.2 |
| Week of February 9 | |||
| February 10 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January | 100.4 | 100.4 | |
| Wholesale Inventories - December | 0.0% | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| February 11 | |||
| Treasury Budget - January | -$3.5B | 1.9 | |
| February 12 | |||
| Retail Sales - January | -0.2% | -0.9 | 0.3 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | -0.3 | -1.0 | 0.2 |
| Retail Sales, Autos | -0.7 | ||
| Business Inventories - December | -0.1% | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| February 13 | |||
| Export Prices - February | -0.4% | -1.2 | -0.7 |
| Import Prices | -3.0 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | -0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) | 98.1 | 98.1 | |
| Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission. | |||
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