Forecasts for the Weeks of February 2 and 9

Peter Morici
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Posted: Feb 02, 2015 12:01 AM
Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast Prior Observation Consensus
Week of February 2
February 2
Personal Income - December 0.3% 0.4 0.3
Personal Spending -0.1 0.6 -0.2
PCE Price Index -0.3 -0.2 -0.3
Core PCE Price Index 0.0 0.0 0.0
Real Personal Spending 0.2 0.7
PMI Manufacturing Index - January 53.8 53.7 54.0
ISM (Mfg) - January 54.8 55.5 54.5
ISM Prices 40.0 38.5 39.5
Construction Spending - December 0.6% -0.3 0.6
February 3
Factory Orders - December -2.1% -0.7 -2.2
Auto Sales* - January 16.80M 16.92 16.60
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
February 4
ADP Employment Survey - January 220K 241.0 220
PMI Services Index - January 54.0 54.0 54.1
ISM Services - January 56.5 56.2 56.5
ISM Prices 49.3 49.5
ISM Business Activity 57.6 57.2
February 5
Initial Unemployment Claims 295K 265 290
International Trade - December -$39.5B -39.0 -37.9
Productivity - Q4 (p) 0.2% 2.3 0.2
Unit Labor Costs 1.6 -1.0 1.2
February 6
Nonfarm Payrolls - January 230K 252 230
Private 224 240 229
Unemployment 5.6% 5.6 5.6
Average Workweek 34.6Hr 34.6 34.6
Average Hourly Earnings 0.3% -0.2 0.3
Consumer Credit - December $15.3B 14.1 15.2
Week of February 9
February 10
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January 100.4 100.4
Wholesale Inventories - December 0.0% 0.8 0.2
February 11
Treasury Budget - January -$3.5B 1.9
February 12
Retail Sales - January -0.2% -0.9 0.3
Retail Sales, ex Autos -0.3 -1.0 0.2
Retail Sales, Autos -0.7
Business Inventories - December -0.1% 0.3 0.2
February 13
Export Prices - February -0.4% -1.2 -0.7
Import Prices -3.0 -2.5 -2.0
Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum -0.4 0.1
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) 98.1 98.1
Peter Morici is a professor at the University of Maryland Smith School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.