Often, it’s not the optimal choice in these circumstances. No matter what, the bully pulpit of the presidency gives whoever is in the Oval home-field advantage. Obama was able to use it masterfully when the government shut down over Obamacare. The 44th president had political skill and the power of oratory far superior to that of his vice president. Biden mumbles, drifts, trips, and looks remarkably weak behind the seal.
Biden’s age and physical appearance are two of the top concerns that come to the mind of voters. If it’s not that, it’s the dismal state of the economy, the lack of accomplishment, and the brutal poll showing that nearly half the country says they’re financially worse off than they were four years ago. These are all election-killing data points for an incumbent president.
As Congress reconvenes after the end of the Yom Kippur holiday, we’re dealing with a slew of spending bills, especially one to keep the government open. That deadline is September 30, and we’re careening toward a shutdown. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, working with a mere five-seat majority, cannot cobble together Democratic votes lest he risk losing his gavel. The conservative wing of the party isn’t looking to play ball. The Democrats aren’t going to lift much to help Republicans. They view it as sticking a knife into the bellies of the GOP, but is it?
If the lights are turned off on Capitol Hill, Democrats would shoulder most of the blame (via ABC News):
Such is down-on-Biden sentiment that if a government shutdown occurs at month's end, 40% say they'd chiefly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, versus 33% who'd pin it on the Republicans in Congress -- even given the GOP infighting behind the budget impasse.
That’s not bad, but there's not much room to maneuver, especially if the GOP has missteps should they go the “burn it all down” route. And given the faces of the conservative wing of the House GOP, going off the rails is likely to happen. No doubt, Trump is fanning the flames, hoping to choke off funds to the Department of Justice, if only for a short while.
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These fights are complex and require round-the-clock maintenance regarding strategy and media messaging, and I don’t trust the party to do that well. I understand the promises to cut spending and get inflation under control, but we only control the House. The Senate and the White House remain under Democratic Party control, and these showdowns will have them lock-step behind Pelosi, Jeffries, and the like.
We have beaten Democrats during these battles, specifically the shutdown under the Trump administration, which was largely over illegal immigration. Democrats finally played ball and did so quickly when public opinion turned against them. The assumption is that even Biden’s people won’t be able to construct sellable talking points attacking Republicans over the shutdown, should one occur. Karine Jean-Pierre has been a trainwreck as press secretary, and most pro-Biden messaging schemes, like Dark Brandon and Bidenomics, flatlines out of the gate.
I’m just worried if we let the government shutdown occur, it’ll provide Biden with an opportunity to rebound, allowing his administration to bury a slew of bad polling regarding the 2024 election. That could also be why the Biden White House might want the distraction.
