It’s a cliché—so I’ll repeat it for redundancy’s sake—that a year is an eternity in politics. Eleven months, which is the time until the next major election, is just short of an eternity, and countless unknown interventions can arise. If we think hard enough, we can all come up with Januarys of election years when a certain politician was “in the lead,” or “trending” towards the nomination, only to fall flat within a few weeks or months. In January 2020, Joe Biden wasn’t exactly dominating the pack of Democratic Party hopefuls. James
Clyburn and South Carolina saved his bacon.
So, the bottom line is that nobody knows the answer to the question in the title, and it would be presumptuous to think we do.
Let me examine what appears to me to be happening as of January 2020. Any of this is subject to change, so don’t quote me on anything.
1. Haley is finished; DeSantis is not yet. As much as the McConnell-RINO wing of Republicans might wish for a return to the Bush-Romney age, it isn’t going to happen. The Republican base will vote in the primaries, and they aren’t going to vote for Nikki Haley. They never were. She is a media/RINO creation who never had any hope of winning the nomination. A few days ago, I noticed that Donald Trump, Jr., came out strongly against Haley being his father’s VP selection. I don’t know how much influence Junior has on Senior, but hopefully enough to stop Senior from producing a storm of disgust among his followers.
That’s provided, of course, that Don, Sr., does win the nomination.
Mr. Trump certainly looks to be in the driver’s seat for the Republican nomination. But I’m not ready to give it to him yet. Voters can be fickle and do odd, unexpected things. Iowa is still a few days away. If Trump rises to victory, then it’s over; he will be the nominee, barring some health or other catastrophe. If Mr. DeSantis wins in Iowa, then it’s a horse race. People will start paying more attention to him, and many Republicans who now favor Trump might like what they see and switch to DeSantis, especially if they think he is more electable. But RDS must win Iowa—or make it very close—to have any hope of the Republican nomination.
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Actually, Mr. DeSantis reminds me somewhat of Ronald Reagan in 1976. Reagan was trying to seize the nomination away from a well-known Republican (Gerald Ford), who just also happened to be President at the time. However, he was never elected to the office (remember Nixon and Watergate). Mr. Reagan, in 1976, simply did not have the political muscle to overcome the leader of the party, Mr. Ford. Ford lost the Presidential election that year, of course, and Jimmy Carter’s abysmal administration set up a Reagan victory in 1980 and 1984. History never EXACTLY repeats itself, but there are some interesting parallels here. Trump simply appears to be too powerful for DeSantis to conquer. Even if Trump wins the Presidency this year, he can’t run again in 2028. DeSantis is the heir apparent. Four years from now, maybe his time.
DeSantis could pull the upset this year, but it doesn’t look probable right now. However, he isn’t going anywhere on the political scene, and if there is no President DeSantis this time, then hopefully, President DeSantis after the 2028 election. Trump’s VP would be his only significant challenger.
2. Trump has momentum now. It appears that, recently, Mr. Trump has been building some impetus toward winning the Presidency. Biden is, of course, widely unpopular, as is Mr. Trump. America is headed towards an election where the winner will be the man who is hated the least. That isn’t the way to select a President, but that is the current state of the union.
All the attacks on Trump look to be backfiring on the Democratic Party. Leftists aren’t very smart, of course—they wouldn’t be Leftists if they were—but they do know how to win elections by hook or crook. Their legal assaults on Trump and their attempts to remove him from the ballots of various states are only creating empathy for Trump and seem to be building support for him. But, burdened with their incredibly incompetent President and their vicious, obviously unjust, and illegal attacks on Trump, the Democrats are digging themselves a hole and maybe a grave. Of course, for Mr. Trump to win the Presidency, he must defeat Biden (or any Democrat) by a cheat-proof margin; there is no question that the Democrats will steal as many votes as they can. But they can’t steal them all. Can Trump assemble sufficient electoral assets to overcome the Democrats’ machinations? That is difficult to imagine, which, despite Trump’s seeming current momentum, makes a second Biden term more likely. But not guaranteed. Here is hoping that Mr. Trump isn’t speaking too soon. Provided he wins the Republican nomination, of course.
3. Will the Dems dump Biden? There is no primary challenge of note to Biden. The nomination is his unless he dies or voluntarily retires. Will his widespread unpopularity cause the “powers at be” in the Democratic Party to attempt to persuade Biden to step down? I can’t see Biden voluntarily withdrawing; the man is too self-centered, arrogant, and in love with himself and the power he holds. Getting Biden off the ticket will take some powerful arguments and motivations. Right now, that doesn’t appear likely.
So, who will be President on January 21, 2025? It looks like Biden or Trump. My money—currently—is still on Biden.
But stay tuned; the final word isn’t in yet.
Subscribe to my substack mklewis929.substack.com for lots more on the Founding Fathers and freedom. Follow me on Twitter: @thailandmkl. Read my western novels, Whitewater , River Bend, Return to River Bend, and Allie’s Dilemma all available on Amazon. And God Bless America!
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