There’s a huge difference between some chud with a username like @MagaBeefcake8008 insisting that Trump can win in the general election, and some neutral guy who’s earned a little bit of respect for actually performing adequately over time with his predictions saying so. Well, that’s happening. People who are not bizarre weirdos who previously thought Donald Trump was doomed in the general are now arguing that Donald Trump might well win. Is it true? That’s debatable, and I am not convinced. But what’s not debatable is that some intelligent and reasonable people who are not involved in Trump’s campaign and who have no dog in the fight have changed their minds about Trump’s ability to win in November. Wherever you stand on an issue, you have to consider all the evidence, even if it challenges what you think. Especially if it challenges what you think.
This bears close examination because electability is key. Much of the rationale behind a Ron DeSantis campaign is that Ron DeSantis really can win in November while Trump really can’t. His recent disposal of that human hairstyle of a Cali governor reaffirmed his skills. Governor RDS is a great guy – I support him in the primary, though I will vote for the GOP nominee, even if it is Nikki Bush Haley (gag me with a 5-inch heel). DeSantis is better on the issues than Trump, but the fact is that Trump is more than good enough on policy. Yeah, he’s had some fails, like his COVID nonsense, but an actual conservative should be thrilled to have another Trump presidency compared with another term of the pinko freaknik that is the Biden show. You can be annoyed by DJT’s dumb nicknames and ridiculous social media ramblings, but none of that matters. He is not running to be your buddy or role model. He’s running to be your president.
So, if Trump takes electability off the table, his only real competitor – Ron DeSantis has a problem. And no, Nikki Haley is not a competitor, unless the Earth slips through a wormhole and is transported back in time 20 years to when her establishment corporation-stroking brand of hack failure conservatism was ascendant.
A recent article by Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics lays out his opinion that Donald Trump not only can win next November, but that right now he is actually favored to do so. Keep in mind that Trende is not some regime media creep with an incentive to lie about the polls to elevate a candidate who is actually weak. He makes a well-reasoned case, which I’m not sure I buy, but I am certainly going to think about.
First, Trende points out the Trump is doing better than ever in the respected RCP average of polls. And when he says “ever,” he means ever. He means better than in 2016 and in 2020. Trump does not have a huge lead over the desiccated old pervert in the White House, but it’s a consistent lead. And as Trende points out, Trump has never had a consistent lead before. The few times he was ahead in past cycles’ RCP average, it was a one-off exception to the rule.
But, of course, America doesn’t elect presidents based on the popular vote but through the Electoral College. Trende points out the Trump is ahead in several battleground states, including ones he lost pretty decisively in 2020. Again, Trump was rarely, if ever, ahead in many of those races not just in 2020 but in 2016 as well. And as Trende points out, a shift of 40,000 votes in various battleground states would have won him his second term in 2020. Trende concludes that, at the moment, not only can Trump win next November, but that Trump is likely to.
That’s good news if you want the commies defeated, but you should never trust good news because bad news has a way of knocking it out of the headlines. There is a year until the election. Things turn 180° in 24 hours. All sorts of stuff is going to happen between now and November. One possible twist is that Trump loses the GOP primary. He has a commanding lead right now, but DeSantis has gone all-in in Iowa, and if RDS wins there that could change everything. But let’s assume Trump keeps his lead and wins the nomination. What else might turn his current lead around?
Well, there is the bogus lawfare he is facing, but that just seems to make him more popular. In fact, his popularity seems to increase whenever he’s in court. If the American people decide he’s being railroaded, and a significant number right now see that this multi-pronged legal assault is the real attack on our democracy that the Democrats are always babbling about, then maybe it becomes an asset rather than a liability. I’m not sure I believe that, but it’s possible. Plus, there is a significant chance that these cases get delayed until after the 2024 election, or that some or all of these garbage charges get dismissed. But even if he is convicted, will you think less of Trump? I won’t, because every single charge against him is an attempt to frame an innocent man so the Democrats can steal the election.
Another possibility is that the Democrats could steal the election the old-fashioned way. The 2020 election was notable for its outright fraud, fraudulent election rule changes, and for the informal rigging via turning all cultural institutions, including the regime media, actively in favor of one political party. Trump can’t be very excited about RNC chair Ronna McDaniel. She’s literally never won an election cycle. Her greatest hits album would be 40 minutes of weeping. And the recent claims that she’s once again failing to conduct the litigation she needs to conduct prior to the election do not bode well for the guy who, inexplicably, lobbied her for reelection. And add to her list of failures the total collapse of RNC fundraising – there’s a vote o’ confidence!. Trump, who already has to spend tens of millions on legal fees, is going to have a hell of a time battling the Democrat money tsunami.
Then there were other risks. The economy could turn around and get better. Now stop laughing. That’s not polite. It could happen. And Chris Christie could fly.
Or the Biden administration could have a foreign policy triumph that breaks its Ronna-esque streak of failure from Afghanistan to Ukraine to Israel. Really, stop laughing. It’s not nice.
Or Joe Biden could withdraw from the election voluntarily, or involuntarily, and the Democrats could pick someone other than Kamala Harris, and that could change the dynamic. Or the voters just start paying attention and decide that their contempt for Joe Biden‘s utter incompetence is outweighed by their irrational hatred of Donald Trump.
All of that could happen. And yet, the power of events is not only something that only benefits Democrats. The economy could get even worse, and I know what I’m betting on. I’ve recently adjusted my investments with that in mind. There is also the probability of more foreign policy failures. Biden’s coterie of grotesque terrorist sympathizers is already busy betraying Israel the way it betrayed the dozens of Americans murdered and held hostage by those Seventh Century sociopaths. But America is not some college campus where the mutants who love Hamas and hate Jews get a pat on the head. Normal Americans despise these scumbags, and the Democrats may have their affinity for these semi-human fungi hung around their necks like millstones. But Israel isn’t the only disaster. Ukraine could totally collapse. Xi could take Taiwan, and frankly, I don’t understand why he hasn’t done it already, considering that our military had failed to unequivocally win a major war in decades even before it was completely neutered by woke idiocy.
Trump could pick a vice presidential running mate who Americans actually like, which means someone who isn’t Nikki Haley. There are some good candidates out there. Trump was pretty savvy in picking Mike Pence, who brought along a lot of evangelicals last time, even if that relationship didn’t end well. Trump wants to win, so I expect that if he’s nominated he will disappoint a lot of annoying characters who somehow imagine they have a shot and pick someone respected by the party’s voters. Or he will pick Nikki Haley.
Maybe Ronna McDaniel will take care of the logistical and administrative functions that the RNC is supposed to handle, like lawfare, and get it done. And maybe donors will start giving again. Those things could happen. I don’t think they will, but they could.
And there’s the minority voter issue. According to the polls, and you have to take that with a giant Mount Everest of salt, minority voters seem to be warming to Trump. Polls show increased support by black and latinx Americans – the latter, in large part, because Trump doesn’t call them latinx. And, after siding against Israel and in favor of genocidal barbarians, some Jewish voters may well re-think their traditional support of the Democrat Party. If Trump manages to come away with just a small increase in minority voting, that could really screw over the Democrats. And maybe he will improve on 2022 and motivate his own voters, many of whom only recently came into politics just because of him and are not habitual voters. It won’t hurt if suburbanites who hate his mean tweets decide mean tweets are better than seven dollar gas.
I still remain unconvinced that Donald Trump is likely to win in November 2024. In my view, way too many people irrationally hate him and will never vote for him. But I could be wrong. There’s evidence that I am, coming from competent people who do not have an interest in twisting their analysis to fit some preconceived result. I still support Ron DeSantis, but I will eagerly support Donald Trump if my party’s voters decide to give him the nomination. No one will celebrate harder if he pulls it off in 2024. I just hope he holds a grudge against people like me who didn’t support him in the primary because I don’t want to take the cut in pay or prestige that comes with an administration job.
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