If Trump thought that Nikki Haley was a threat – and he clearly does not – then I propose his nickname for this 2005 re-tread be “Fetch.” As in “Stop trying to make fetch happen! It's not going to happen!” Nikki Haley is not going to happen. She’s so fetch.
Nikki was always the candidate for the establishment-curious folks who thought Mike Pence was too Jesusy and not grrrrrrrl powery enough. With Pence departing, Tim Scott sinking, Chris Christie deflating, and the novelty value of Vivek Ramaswamy fading as crunch time approaches, she’s really the only alternative left to Trump or DeSantis. The problem is that she rejects the modern populist/conservative GOP model. She’s Jeb! in a skirt, and the voters were done with the Jeb!s and Mitts! and McCain!s and the rest of Team Fail. Her recent Michael Steele endorsement tells you just about everything you need to know. She’s dominating a lane that no one wants to drive in anymore.
While some folks I respect think she’s got a shot, the idea of her winning a GOP nomination in 2024 is wishful thinking, with the emphasis most assuredly on the “wishful” instead of the “thinking” part. But let’s not let reality interfere with a Republican primary. There is allegedly a Nikki Haley surge going on, based largely on one poll that suddenly has her up in Iowa and others up in New Hampshire. Don’t believe the hype. Trump sure doesn’t – he barely acknowledges that she is in the race, focusing his firepower (and money) on the guy he sees as an actual threat – Ron DeSantis (who I make no secret of supporting in the primary, though I will vote for whichever Republican wins the nomination)
But Nikki has her boosters. She is the cure for what her fans see as the GOP’s current affliction – politicians like Trump and DeSantis who actually address the issues the voters care about instead of the issues the donors care about. Many of those donors like her because she eagerly carries their corporate water – watching her caper for the amusement of Disney and Boeing is downright embarrassing. Imagining the GOP yearns to relive the Bush foreign policy, she is down for every war that comes along while refusing to fight the one war the voters care about most, the culture war. And the regime media is in on pumping her up because it is bored. Trump is way ahead in the race and they can only write so many stories about how Ron DeSantis is about to fall out of the race or run out of money or lock all the gay people in Florida in a giant camp in the Okefenokee swamp where no one can say “Gay.”
But the fact is that Ron DeSantis is the only potential alternative to Trump, who has been largely quiet lately except for some confusing and odd appearances that no one seems to have noticed. That’s smart – he’s ahead by a lot today, and why give DeSantis an opportunity to compare their potential for winning in November 2024? His smart play is to ignore the race, dodge the debates, and turn his internet band of lackies and lackwits loose to furiously caress themselves over the Florida governor’s shoes.
It’s tacky and lame, but also cunning. After all, why would Trump want to talk about how a huge bunch of American voters (wrongly) despise him and will not vote for him? Trump’s chances in the general have probably ticked up a bit – I give him a 20% chance of winning the general instead of the 15% I gave him until recently. This is entirely the result of Biden’s utter incompetence and the fact that President Crusty’s sort-of standing with Israel – with friends like him, who needs enemies? – is dividing the garbage Democrat Party between people who hate Trump and support the murder of Jews and people who hate Trump and do not support the murder of Jews. A lot of very liberal folks are realizing that a lot of other very liberal folks want them dead, yet do not expect them to vote for Trump even though his platform is “I oppose letting you be killed.” Leftism truly is a mental disorder as much as a moral failing. Many of these Democrats would rather die than vote for Trump, and they will prove it at the ballot box.
Trump is hugely ahead today; Iowa is make or break for the governor. It’s hard to see Big D go on without making a big splash in the Hawkeye State. Contrary to the conventional wisdom – “conventional” meaning “a total lack of” in this context – DeSantis has not run a bad campaign. He has run a fine campaign using the only possible strategy there is against a very popular (among Republican primary voters) opponent who is being outrageously persecuted with bogus lawsuits and criminal cases. That is to raise money, organize a ground game, talk to the voters and to media, and draw contrasts with his opponent. It might not work, but it was always going to be hard. Trump remains popular and the evil and unfair attempts to criminalize him have made many back him out of sheer “Screw you, commies” energy. DeSantis has done as well as it could be done, and it still might not be enough. If he loses, he loses not because he is a bad candidate but because the Republican voters decided they are sticking with Trump.
In contrast, Nikki has just sort of existed. She ignores Trump – remember that she’s really been running for veep, though her unaccountably large ego has probably convinced her lately to think she’s got a shot at the first place prize. She seems to have no strategy except to bombard people with emails (I get several a day) and to repeat consultant-generated cliches. When she busts out with cringe like “I don’t want a Department of Defense! I want a Department of Offense!” you get the image of a sweaty Vegas opening act in a side lounge begging the bored patrons for a laugh at his bit about how airline food is bad.
Trump’s got real problems in the general, but would general election voters pull the lever for DeSantis if he won the nom? Maybe – the ex-GOP types driven away by mean tweets might well come back home. At least he has a track record of success to run on. Will they vote for Nikki? That’s not clear. While she is focused on winning over suburban housewives with her painful “The best man for the job is a woman!” schtick, she’s also alienating to their husbands who get the vibe from Nikki that they used to get from their girlfriend’s disapproving roommate. But mostly, she’s a change candidate who wants to change things back when back was not better. Sure, she’s a million times less awful than Biden, but she’s still Romneyriffic.
At this point, we should also consider Doug Bergum. There, done.
The bottom line is this. Donald Trump is way ahead. The GOP voters today seem set on him. Ron DeSantis has a shot, but he must win Iowa. And Nikki Haley has a chance too, provided some mad scientist creates a time machine to send her back to 2004 when her brand of managed failure Republicanism was ascendant. Otherwise, her alleged surge is a fizzle.
Look, we need your help to keep up the fight by joining Townhall VIP right now. You get access to a bunch of great stuff, not the least of which is my extra Wednesday column, the weekly Stream of Kurtiousness videos every Friday, my Unredacted podcast every Monday, my VIP members-only direct email address, and more! Join now! Use promo code SAVEAMERICA for 50% off membership.
Follow Kurt on Twitter @KurtSchlichter. Get the newest volume in the Kelly Turnbull People's Republic series of conservative action novels set in America after a notional national divorce, the bestselling Amazon #1 Military Thriller, Overlord!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member