The 2022 midterms are not yet over – get ready to savor the wailing and gnashing of teeth of broken, shattered libs! – but the GOP’s 2024 presidential race is already underway. Not officially, not openly, but we can see the candidates’ covert positioning. Soon it will be overt. Word on the street is that not long after the red wave hits, Donald Trump will announce he is seeking the Republican nomination, taking credit for some of the big midterm wins. He would love a quick and quiet coronation, but that’s not happening. The GOP primary fight is going to be epic, and if you think Ron DeSantis is not going to run, I have a bridge to sell you that Governor DeSantis rebuilt in record time during his massively successful Hurricane Ian response.
Last Sunday afternoon I got bored – you can only slap around so many Twitter pinko blue checks before it gets monotonous – and I decided to toss a match into a barrel of high-octane gasoline. I tweeted “Okay, let's do this thing. Who do you hardcore patriots want to see win the GOP 2024 nomination right this minute, knowing you can change your mind as the primary progresses...” Then I listed the poll choices and set it to run for two hours. I expected a few hundred results, and for the former president to come in ahead of the pack.
That did not happen. In just two short hours, 14,713 people voted in the poll and the responses were shocking:
President Donald J. Trump - 32.6%
Governor Ron DeSantis - 64.1%
Another based GOPer - 1.8%
Liz Cheney or her ilk - 1.6%
Perhaps the most stunning part was that 1.6% of the people following me on Twitter supported Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, or some other Never Trump dork. But the fact that nearly two-thirds of the poll voters picked Ron DeSantis over Donald Trump was pretty amazing too.
Now, these people are not soft Republicans. These are not moderate invertebrates. These are not cruise ship cons. My timeline is predominantly hardcore folks who generally like Donald Trump. They think he did a pretty good job as president. They think the last election was flawed. They will vote for him if he wins the nomination without hesitation. But only three in ten put him as their first choice for the Republican nomination in 2024.
Why? And how does that square with the formal polls showing Trump far ahead in a head-to-head with any other Republican?
Now, my poll makes no pretense of being scientific, though #sceince’s reputation has taken some hits of late. But it means something, and frankly very few polls – even formal ones – are much better than an educated guess. My poll was of engaged, very conservative people who think a lot about politics and prioritize winning. Perhaps among Republicans in general, few have really put a lot of thought into it such that they have already focused on the issue enough to consider backing off the natural default position, which is supporting Trump again. The 2022 elections are not even over with – the only people who have given the issue much thought are us kooks who think about politics a lot.
But this does raise the possibility that support for Donald Trump is wide but shallow. When people actually have to consider their choices – and when the get introduced to people like DeSantis or Mike Pompeo or the others who may run – they might decide that Trump’s weaknesses outweigh his strengths. Surprisingly few people in formal polls even know much about DeSantis yet; if he runs – and he really needs to or he might miss his window – they will get to know him, and as the upcoming disembowelment of Charlie Crist in the Florida gubernatorial election will show, when Republicans get to know him, they like him.
Trump senses the threat, and he has lashed out. He recently got mad at DeSantis for endorsing the Republican running in Colorado. Joe O’Dea inexplicably decided to pick a fight with Trump and got clobbered for it, but Trump telling people not to support a GOP candidate brought back bad memories of Trump’s blunder regarding the Georgia run-offs. In attacking Republican DeSantis for endorsing the Republican Senate candidate, Trump looked selfish but also weak. His slam on DeSantis failed to land. Trump’s ability to belittle opponents was devastating in 2016, but those opponents often deserved belittlement. Low Energy Jeb! Bush? That moniker summed up the bloated clown perfectly. But if he tries that on a guy with a track record of achievement and being based – and of punching back twice as hard – it could fall flat and remind voters of what they do not like about Trump when Trump needs to be reminding people of his long list of successes. Trump loses a campaign based on vindicating his personal grievances. Most every GOP voter likes Trump, but few GOP voters care if his feelings are hurt if that gets in the way of winning.
The poll drew many comments that identified some key points. A lot of folks reasoned that Trump should do four years then DeSantis should do eight more. That sounds great, except it assumes Trump wins in 2024, and electability is the key issue for GOP voters. It also assumes DeSantis would take the Veep slot. He won’t – though Kari Lake sure might. And DeSantis has no promise of an open field in 2028. He would likely have to fight Kari and others in 2028 for the nomination regardless, which is good. No coronations ever.
Some people felt that Trump is owed another term, and that it would be disloyal to oppose him. Trump certainly is owed another term, but not by us. We do not owe our politicians anything – they owe us, and that goes for loyalty too. Politicians should be loyal to us, and we should discard any that fail to cut it. It’s about winning. Sentimentality is for losers.
Some people think DeSantis is too establishment. They point to Paul Ryan and Jeb! Bush supporting him. It is unclear that he ever asked for these losers’ endorsements, and he probably does not want them, but what is important is what DeSantis does. He does competently govern, he does slam the media, and he does own the libs?
Trump has exhausted some conservatives. Others think he is too old. Oh, they would happily vote for him if he got nominated again, but many prefer a guy they see as embodying a lot of Trump’s assets without his corresponding liabilities.
Very few voters were interested in anyone else besides the King Kong and Godzilla of the Grand Old Party. Mike Pence’s potential candidacy seems to be based on telling Republicans who want a coherent and clear Ukraine plan to get out of the party. His campaign is off to a flying stop. Mike Pompeo is running, but he just does not have DeSantis’s record of heat. Ted Cruz will run again, but many think he had his shot. And Nikki Haley is, well, Jeb! in a skirt.
It's Trump or DeSantis, and the fight is already underway below the surface even if they are both pretending it’s not. Right now, its passive aggressive, but it will not be long before it is aggressive aggressive, and sooner than you think.
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