In early March, President Trump met with a delegation of freed Israeli hostages who were in Hamas captivity. That night he doubled down on his threat to Hamas, writing on Truth Social, “Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”
The question: What does “hell to pay” look like for a nihilistic death cult?
President Trump has already unleashed military assistance to Israel that President Biden held up and has given Israel the green light to carry out their operations against Hamas in Gaza as they see fit. But there are two additional rungs on the escalation ladder that could force Hamas’s compliance, and the president should consider them.
The first is the West Bank. Attention has been focused on Hamas’s Gaza activities, which makes sense; that’s where the remaining hostages are. And yet, in the West Bank—where Israel has been carrying out near-daily counterterror operations—Hamas’s popularity is soaring, and the group may believe it could reconstitute there, particularly in their strongholds of Jenin and Tulkarm.
The West Bank is a nexus for Iranian weapons smuggling and financing over the last two years, with Tehran eager to recreate another October 7 from there. As its footprint has diminished in Syria and elsewhere in the region due to Israel’s military campaign, Iran has been intensifying its focus on Jordan and the West Bank.
Iran and its proxies believe the United States won’t upset the regional balance by green lighting Israel’s expansion of activity in the West Bank. They believe doing so would feed a false narrative of forcing Palestinians from their land.
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And yet, Arab states understand today’s tenuous security conditions in the region. There is no better source of stability in the West Bank than the deep and strong military and intelligence collaboration between Israel and Jordan, both of which view Iran in a similar light. Phase one of President Trump’s “hell to pay” effort could be giving greater support to Jerusalem and Amman in their collaborations.
Hamas may still only budge incrementally, holding up the release of all remaining 59 hostages over an extension of the ceasefire as it plots its moves. Meanwhile, its chief backer, the Iranian regime—to whom Hamas will respond—is content to have the United States bogged down with its lesser proxy as it focuses on its nuclear ambitions and restoring whatever regional influence it lost.
Enter phase two of “hell to pay.” The president should transmit to the ayatollahs a message that if all the hostages are not released by a set date and time, Israel will have the green light to strike all of Iran’s nuclear facilities at a time of its choosing.
This should be reinforced by joint training exercises between the United States and Israel within striking range of Iran. Israel and the United States have already been holding such joint exercises; perhaps sending that intended message.
It’s good press and good policy to spotlight Iran’s central role in supporting the October 7 attack. It also makes clear that Hamas’s actions are a key reason for Tehran’s weak, vulnerable condition. The message to Hamas and its patrons in Tehran: Release the hostages today or you are both in the crosshairs of the IDF and the Israeli Air Force tomorrow.
Jacob Olidort, Ph.D. is director of the Center for American Security at the America First Policy Institute.
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