The first Republican primary debate is tomorrow, and you shrug and ask why anyone would care this far ahead of anyone voting just know that you are not alone. The 2028 and 2032 cycles are going to start in earnest next week.
Still, while the idea of debating this early is absurd, absurdity is where we live now. It’s weird how we went from a relatively patient society to one constantly tapping its foot, complaining that the microwave is taking too long to reheat whatever or something is taking a full 10 seconds to download and it’s some kind of injustice. In other words, we’ve been spoiled by how spoiled we are.
That being said, the debate is happening. Will it matter? Probably not, actually. But it is worth nothing a few things to see what could happen and where, if anywhere, the race will end up afterwards.
The elephant in the room will be the elephant not in the room: Donald Trump. The former President has decided that after years of complaining about rigged elections and democracy being stolen, he wants the nomination process to be rigged in his favor and won’t deign to answer any questions people might have about what he’d do as president again or answer for any of the shortcomings of his first term. This seems wildly shortsighted, but it is in keeping with where the Republican Party has been going lately.
More and more, Republicans are elevating what they used to mock, becoming what they used to complain about. Stacey Abrams was called a sore loser because she was a sore loser, and MSNBC engaged in lie after lie when they elevated her conspiracy theories about how she was robbed. This year the Georgia Republican Party flew in Kari Lake to keynote their annual dinner, thereby negating any Stacey Abrams jokes that could and should have been told. Say what you will about Lake, and I thought she was an effective and impressive candidate, but she lost. She lost by focusing only on the people who supported her the most, and candidate need to learn that the amount of love they receive from someone does not add votes. Dedicated supporters only get to vote once. If you are really, really loved by 40 percent of the electorate, there’s still 60 percent with other opinions. Fail to try to win them over and you will lose.
Trump entitlement will be on full display, as you can expect at least Chris Christie to hammer him every chance he gets. The other candidates would be smart to either ignore his absence or only comment on it as an aside, by going after his record on things like supporting shutdowns or deferring to Fauci. But they shouldn’t name him. Trump will be sitting on his social media page, with his staff ready to repost whatever he writes onto Twitter, and if he’s largely ignored it’ll seem more like Joan Crawford pretending to be sick and skipping the Oscars because she didn’t think she’s win, only to emerge to the press out her front door, in full make-up, after her name was called.
For the rest of the field, this is their first moment. It’s doubtful anyone will drop out from this debate, there is another one a couple of weeks later they’ve all already qualified for too. Anyone can hang around that long, if only for the stories.
All eyes will be on Ron DeSantis because, well, the media want all eyes on him. The media wants a scalp and they think his is the best one to grab. Honestly, who cares? DeSantis knows his stuff, he didn’t fall backwards into his policy victories in Florida. The campaign is a marathon, not a sprint, no matter how many paid hacks scrambling for access pretend otherwise.
Vivek Ramaswamy will be seen by more people than ever before, and his performance will generally depend on how soft the questions tossed his way are. I expect them to be soft because he’s made himself so available to media that like him. But he’s always struck me as a con artist. Not in a criminal way, but he’s always there with exactly whatever the audience wants to hear from him. I don’t know that he’s ever said anything not a generally boring talking point in his campaign, either for president or to sell books. Except, maybe, when he hinted 9/11 might have been, at least partially, an inside job.
The rest of the field has to do something to stand out, and one or more of them likely will. It won’t be hard – the media loves to build people up, only to knock them down later. One or more of the candidates will have a line that lands, goes viral on social media, and will see a bump in fundraising in the immediate aftermath. That will be a story for a day or two, then it will be as though it never even happened.
The sad fact is the narrative is already set for this primary, and anything that does not conform to it will quickly be swept under the rug. The talking heads are already lined up for the post-debate “reaction,” and they all have their jerseys picked out to wear under their TV clothes. I’m not saying the whole thing will be a waste of time because something major could happen…but it’s more likely the debate stage will be hit by a meteor. Not because the candidates won’t try, but because the media won’t care.
The stories of the debate are already drafted, just waiting for a couple of actual quotes to plug into it. Teams have been chosen, pundits have been picked; it’s all over but the shouting, and that will be about as real as “big time wrestling” is.
If you want my advice, the only way to get anything out of this debate worth a damn is to watch it and nothing else. Don’t tune in early for the expectations game, turn it off immediately after to skip the spin parade. Stay off social media. Do something else. Then go to bed. In the morning, think about it without having heard anyone else’s opinions on the subject. Then, and only then, do you run risk of getting anything worth a damn from a debate five months before anyone has a chance to vote on anything.
Derek Hunter is the host of a free daily podcast (subscribe!) and author of the book, Outrage, INC., which exposes how liberals use fear and hatred to manipulate the masses, and host of the weekly “Week in F*cking Review” podcast where the news is spoken about the way it deserves to be. Follow him on Twitter at @DerekAHunter.
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