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OPINION

Trump’s Leverage Doctrine

The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of Townhall.com.
AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Venezuela, the dollar, Greenland, and tariffs all fit into a long-term strategy to protect America.

President Trump’s move on Venezuelan oil has been widely misunderstood—often mocked as a crude “oil grab” or a short-term tactic. It is neither.

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What we are witnessing is leverage used deliberately as national strategy.

Trump has always thought in leverage. Long before politics, while building a real-estate empire, he learned a simple truth: power comes from eliminating your own weaknesses while exposing your opponent’s dependencies. Control the pressure points, and negotiations change.

That instinct now defines his foreign policy.

Start with Venezuela. On the surface, reopening Venezuelan oil under American firms looks like an energy decision. In reality, it is monetary policy in disguise.

Oil priced and settled in U.S. dollars is the backbone of American financial power. Global demand for dollars keeps interest rates lower, supports massive borrowing, and gives Washington leverage over world markets. The petrodollar system is not a slogan—it is infrastructure.

For years, China and Russia sought to escape it. Venezuela was central to that effort. China bought most of its crude at steep discounts, often outside the dollar system, using shadow fleets to bypass sanctions. Beijing loaned tens of billions secured against future deliveries, gaining leverage over energy, currency, and geopolitics all at once.

Trump collapsed that arrangement.

Under the new structure, Russia and China can still buy Venezuelan oil—but only through U.S. companies, on U.S. terms, and in U.S. dollars. Every barrel sold now strengthens the dollar instead of weakening it. The same supply that once fueled de-dollarization now reinforces the very system designed to stop it.

This is not sanctions. It is leverage reversed.

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The move reaches further. Venezuela holds untapped rare-earth deposits—critical for semiconductors, AI, defense systems, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing. China dominates rare-earth processing today because it locked up supply early and turned dependency into pressure.

Trump understands dependency as weakness. So instead of reacting later, he is closing future pressure points now.

The same logic explains Greenland.

Greenland is not about conquest or prestige. It is about control—of Arctic shipping lanes, missile-defense geography, energy access, and rare-earth resources. As ice retreats, new routes open. Whoever governs them influences global trade costs, energy flows, and supply-chain stability.

That influence is not abstract. It shows up as higher—or lower—prices at the American checkout line.

Leaving Greenland ambiguous means surrendering leverage. Securing it removes another vulnerability.

Tariffs sit at the very center of this philosophy. They rebalance trade by making dependence costly and domestic production attractive. They bring investment and jobs back home, addressing decades of offshoring that hollowed out American manufacturing. Tariffs also create negotiating leverage: countries must choose between paying duties or building factories here.

Seen together, these moves form a single system:

  • Tariffs rebalance trade and protect jobs.
  • Oil protects the dollar.
  • Minerals protect industry.
  • Geography protects security.

Each reduces dependence. Each increases options. Each forces adversaries to negotiate from weaker positions.

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This is the opposite of recklessness. It is long-term risk management.

For decades, America accumulated vulnerabilities—trade imbalances, supply-chain dependence, currency exposure, unsecured sea lanes—while calling it globalization. Trump saw those vulnerabilities for what they were: leverage handed away.

Now he is taking it back.

This is not a short-term strategy—any more than the Louisiana Purchase, Alaska, or Greenland are short-term decisions.

The media prefers to portray Trump as impulsive because the alternative is uncomfortable: admitting he understands power structurally, not rhetorically. That he sees weakness where others see “norms.” That he views leverage not as domination, but as freedom of action.

Great nations fail when they become dependent. They endure when they keep leverage.

Trump understands that instinctively.

There is a single thread running through his entire career—private and public—that many still miss: leverage. Remove dependence. Control pressure points. Keep options open. Even DOGE fits this pattern—not weaponizing government, but de-weaponizing fraud that others used as leverage.

History may one day see this moment not as an oil deal or a land discussion, but as the point when America quietly avoided checkmate.

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