First Contraction In Manufacturing In 3 Years

Yesterday, the market tumbled out the gate and took another hit on news of the first contraction in manufacturing in three years, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Major indices closed off the lowest points of the session, but it’s clear there has to be a shift in the narrative on trade, and I think the Fed needs to get a sustained upside move.

It looks as if we'll have to wait for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering for the next move by Powell & Co, and perhaps an official date for China's trade delegation to come to the United States for the next round of negotiations. Of course, the right tweet could also supercharge the market, but I highly doubt that's coming anytime soon.

China has sounded conciliatory but raised tariffs with the United States over the past weekend. 

Still, when Chinese Vice Premier Liu met yesterday with a delegation led by U.S. Senator Steve Daines and Senator David Perdue in Beijing, he offered this same line, which sounds more like a cliché than a positive overture:

“hope that the two sides could deepen mutual understanding, seek common ground while reserving differences, and properly resolve problems on the basis of equality and mutual respect.”

Common ground would be playing by the rules.

While that saga plays out, Great Britain has been thrust into the news again over the latest efforts of the establishment to deny the Brits a break from their linkage to the European Union (EU). A vote last night moved the nation closer to a snap election that might once and for all decide if Brexit happens.   The gambit would stage a showdown between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn or capitalism versus socialism.

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Maybe it’s a preview of our own 2020 election.

For now, the market remains range-bound, and while I know many are becoming frustrated, there is no need to panic. 

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