It was a counterintuitive day on Wall Street where everything that was supposed to stumble actually rallied including key China stock exchanges.
Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen rallied on the session in part to speculation of a large stimulus injection by the Chinese government. The thing is, these stocks have taken a massive hit this year since President Trump announced he would fight back.
But I think there are other issues bothering these exchanges that actually make me believe winning this trade war will work greater in the favor of the United States.
China’s Market Woes | June 2015 | YTD 2018 | Sept 18 |
Shanghai | -48% | -18% | +1.8% |
Shenzhen | -55% | -26% | +1.4% |
The broad market popped nicely lead by consumer discretionary names. Lots of industries in the sector will be immediately impacted by the additional tariffs. This, as holiday job hiring announcements continues to pour in. Even FedEx, who is publicly complaining about tariffs, plans to hire 55,000 temp workers for what promises to be a record-breaking Christmas season. Kohl’s management began hiring for the holiday season back in July.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, more than 400,000 holiday retail jobs have already been announced.
- FedEx 120,000
- UPS 100,000
- Target 120,000 (at $12.00 an hour)
- Macy’s 80,000
- Gap Stores 65,000
The second best performing sector was industrials, helped by Boeing (BA) with a strong session, although the moves in rails was extraordinary and bodes very well for where this economy is going.
There were down sectors including real estate and utilities as money came out of those defensive sectors. Consumer staples lagged as General Mills shares took a big hit, reminding investors that while Americans will pay up for everything from smart phones to sneakers, we will not pay extra for our Fruit Roll-Ups or Toaster Strudels.
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The biggest winner in the session was Tilray, rallying 24%, on news from the US Drug Enforcement Administration granting the company approval to import a medical cannabis study drug. The stock is looking to be up 300% since the CEO appeared on my show and some of you bought and have reached out to me on when to sell or even if you should buy now noting in part the huge short position.
I would say the $9.5 million in revenue in the last quarter doesn’t justify the $14.4 billion market cap so understand the risk and don’t let this monster gain go up in smoke (couldn’t help it). By the way Tilray looking to open like a rocket ship this morning.
I think there will be massive wealth created in some publicly traded marijuana companies but for now I would only be a nimble trader because they are trading off the hype and we’ve seen this before with things like 3D printing and cyber security stocks or even individual names like Facebook and Etsy which took a year of being publicly traded to pick up their stride.
Speaking of huge short positions Telsa today acknowledged that last month the company received a “voluntary request for documents” from the Justice Department but no subpoena or request for testimony.
Shares finished down ten points, but also rebounded about ten points into the close. This is another name that shorts can’t put away. You have to wonder if the company can deliver here, we could see another parabolic short squeeze like the one that happened after the last earnings release. I’m watching $166-$170 as key support on the stock.
Overall it was a great session more because it was driven the underlying fundamentals of the United States government. There’s no doubt folks breathe a sigh of relief because the mutual tariff announcements were 10% not 25% but top line growth powered by a resurgent consumer and major business investment is the real story of the economy and today’s session.
Watch the pendulum of fear swing to worry about a pullback to worry about missing out once the Dow Jones Industrial Average takes out the January high.
Today’s Session
Looking for a tentative start to the session which is understandable. But there is a calm before the storm and the bias is to the upside. We will remain focused on facts not fear and fundamentals not speculation.
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