Very Consequential Week Ahead

It was a very difficult session on Friday that saw early winners get hammered and a few earlier losers reverse to the upside. Clearly, the theme of last week was a lack of safety nets. When the upside momentum paused, stocks tumbled like lead balloons.

Also, caution drove the investors into real estate and utilities with consumer discretionary names, led by Expedia (EXPE) and Amazon (AMZN), along with bottom fishing in Under Armour (UAA) and Finish Line Inc (FINL).

Message of the Market

Market Breadth

There was a positive shift in new high highs to new lows for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ:

NYSE

New Highs: 64

New Lows: 48

NASDAQ

New Highs: 62

New Lows: 55

Earnings Reactions

The market needs leadership, especially beyond technology. That said, there are numerous industries that are outperforming, including pockets of retail and restaurants. 

It’s the plague of any earnings season, but this time around, the reaction to results and guidance has been treacherous. Even with a blending earnings growth of 24.6%, the best since the fourth quarter of 2010 - and confident guidance - many would-be winners are getting slammed. See Western Digital (WDC). 

Of course, earnings are backward-looking, but it does speak to execution, momentum, and guidance.  The reaction to earnings is also a mix of science and emotion, which means low expectations can spark huge moves in benign earnings beats while fantastic earnings results can often be greeted with huge stock sell-offs.

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Earnings Scoreboard and Sector Performance

Mountain of Worry

While there is increased talk of economic stagflation, the stock market remains bogged down in a trading range that sees staircase rallies and elevator shaft falls.

The assortment of things has derailed the rally range from the nonsensical to the sublime. The political theater has derailed big up-sessions, but so too have more substantive concerns:

• Dollar
• Yields
• Inflation
• Recession
• Stagflation

Yes, stagflation is the most recent reason for selling stocks. It’s not just in the United States; there is a growing concern about high unemployment being offset by higher inflation. The stagflation argument gained steam from the first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and the surge in commodities prices.

GDP

However, 2.3% beats consensus, which is the first time that’s happened in the first quarter of any year since 2008. The number is well above average (1.6%) of the GDP from 2009 – 2017. 

Key Metrics

• Personal Income: +$182.1 billion
• Personal taxes: -$40.1 billion
• Disposable Income: $222.1 billion
• Savings rate: 3.1% from 2.6%

Negative Surprise

• Personal Consumption: +1.1%

Positive Surprises

Business Investments: +7.3%

• Structures: +12.3%
• Equipment: +4.7%

Trade

• Imports: +4.8%
• Exports: +2.6%

Commodities Price Moves 2018

• Cocoa: +49.7%
• Lumber: +27.3%
• Wheat: +16.4%
• Oil: +14.3%
• Nickel: +12.1%
• Corn: +11.4%
• Soybean: +10.8%
• Aluminum: +6.2%
• Gold: +2.1%
• Copper -7.2%

I’m not in the stagflation camp yet, but I will continue to monitor.

I think the biggest worry for investors is this need for a daily dose of impending doom. In life, when people and crowds look for something even when it’s not there, they eventually find it, but more often than not, they create it themselves. The noise has drowned out all the great news this year. Even when there has been notable progress, the reactions have been harsh.

What’s interesting is the stock market has a reputation of “climbing a wall of worry,” but it’s tumbling on all breaking news and emerging conventional wisdom.

Nonetheless, I will say that the bears are frustrated that the market hasn’t completely collapsed. This is easily illustrated with the pennant formation of the market, as there have been higher lows and lower highs, which means there should be a moment of truth soon where a decisive move occurs.

S&P 500

• Key Resistance Points: 2,717 then 2,786
• Key Support Points: 2,634 then 2,581

This calls to mind the notion that stocks have been priced for perfection, which I don’t think has been the case, or perhaps the economy has reached perfection and it’s only downhill from here.

Is this as good as it gets?

Sentiment

What is "As Good As It Gets?"

1- A single mother and waitress, a misanthropic author, and a gay artist form an unlikely friendship after the artist is assaulted in a robbery.

2- Conventional Wisdom that continues to derail stock market rallies (see Michigan Sentiment Report)

Investors began last week with the “high watermark” comments, derailing a rally attempt after extrapolating the comments from the CFO of Caterpillar to reflect the entire economy and the market situation. 

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment release reveals a massive tug of war between optimism over tax reform and pessimism over potential tariff and trade war.

Consequently, while the revised April report edged higher, current conditions slipped. The 2018 average of 98.9 is the second highest in the past 70 years (107.6 in 2000).

Where Do We Go From Here?

However, I say the best is yet to come. Moreover, there are many intriguing positives on the horizon, including peace on the Korean peninsula and new trade deals.

Before then, the market will grapple with a hard push by the Trump administration on tariffs with a lot of news expected this week.  We also get more earnings reports, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathering, and the jobs report, too.