The stealth Bear Market rages on with more fanfare and with even greater concern.
The market has been under huge pressure, even though the major indices were lower, they continue to mask the depth of the carnage. Consider that last week, there were four losers for every winner on the NYSE and almost nine losers for every winner on NASDAQ.
It did not get any better on Monday, where only 14 NYSE and 44 NASDAQ stocks closed at new 52-week highs versus 462 and 300 new 52-week lows, respectively.
China’s Market
On Monday, our market opened lower on news that China’s market dropped more than 8% overnight. It was widely reported the decline was the second worst since 2000. Some made the point that it was not even in the top ten. However, a piece in the Financial Times made an even better point: those declines before the turn of century reflected a much less mature market. The current woes are in real names in the second largest economy in the world, and some say it is the most important one.
However, understand that a company that generates a lot of money, but no growth is what moves the global economic needle as growth moves stocks. How much is China growing and what are the implications? Although I think it is growing faster than America, I am not sure. Anyone who wants to mention central planning and manipulation needs to input four trillion dollars of Federal Reserve money printing into the equation.
China’s market is still up for the year. I would not be surprised if it finishes 2015 higher than it began this week.
Oil Slick
Crude has been under huge pressure this month, down more than 21% in part to a combination of factors, including Iranian oil coming back on line, China’s economy slowdown, and global demand slowdown.
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The calls are back for oil with a “3” handle, meaning to change hands in the thirty-dollar area, although the risk-reward dynamics change quickly at much lower levels. In other words, producers will stop pumping the stuff out of the ground. I am not sure where producers slow down, but the other side of the coin is demand. The fact is that demand should improve in the second half of the year; there could be another spike higher.
On that note, crude is in a reverse head-and-shoulders formation, which is typically a buy signal.
Note: I will update our Oil Report at the end of the week. In the meantime, while many oil stocks are severely oversold, crude must establish a firm bottom before equity buyers step in.
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