The NASDAQ may have just had the second most monumental breakthrough of a double top formation in stock market history. It took fifteen long years for the index to make a new high after the biggest market crash any living person has had to endure. The lingering resentment is going to be there for many years to come; and for a lot of former investors, it will never go away.
This is why the rally has been ignored. Actually, it is more fertile grounds for the merchants of doom than anyone discussing reasonable expectations of enhancing wealth through investing in stocks.
Revenge of the Dormant Dow
For those who think this is a sell signal rather than a buy signal, consider after the crash that sparked the Great Depression in 1929 that it took the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30 years to break through a double top; but once it did, it was off to the races. Before it got its second wind, the Dow did back-and-fill, and even suffered another bear market from 1965 to 1982, before the rally that culminated with the spectacular tech crash.
Moreover, if history repeats itself, we could see a rally that will last through 2021.
Of course, there's a lot more to investing in the market than history, but it makes for a great gauge of possibilities; and maybe from time to time, it will add a dollop of common sense when the overarching narrative is hysteria.
Plus, investors need to understand the “adjusted for inflation.” NASDAQ still has 1,500 points to go, to break-even. In fact, the traditional valuation metrics aren't anywhere near historic levels that signaled past tops.
So, if you are ready to get in the market, please trust and believe in what I am saying. It’s smarter to get in now than play the mind game of waiting for the next big correction.
- When does that correction happen?
- Are you honestly going to buy into the midst of panic and fear?…No
There is a dilemma, however.
It's a classic dilemma. You want to get in the market, but it has made a big run, so your natural instinct is to buy something that's "not already up big." Well, your instinct is wrong. Sure, there are value names that aren't at all-time highs. Some stocks are down on extenuating circumstances, such as the bird flu, that may be short-lived. It's our challenge, and while I love it, the low-hanging fruit is gone. By the same token, fundamental stories evolve and many stocks that are higher are actually cheaper now than they were a year ago.
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