In a very recent study pollster John Zogby suggested that the Republican Party is facing difficulties so daunting that the very survival of the organization hinges on the Party’s ability to successfully meet these challenges. He claims that the Republicans might fold altogether if they fail to negotiate a safe passage through these storms, pointing out the well-known demographic trends working against the GOP, noting their inability to attract votes from minority groups, and referring to the now cavernous gap between the two Parties in terms of money available, both immediately and in the near future. While Zogby’s contention that the Republican Party might fold is very likely overhyped, the GOP is facing many difficulties, which go far beyond the analysis of the pollsters and the focus groups.
The Republican Party suffers now from lack of a program, lack of leadership, and lack of an overall strategy. If the observer considers the Republican performance over the last few months he will notice the Party fumbling many issues and committing the same type of errors that caused them to forfeit public confidence and to lose control of the legislative and executive branches of the government. Since early May the GOP has missed an opportunity by failing to press House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the Bush Administration enhanced interrogation briefings. Granted, the House Speaker herself refuses to discuss the matter, and a complicit media actively shields her on the issue, but Republican failure to hammer this relentlessly has allowed the affair to slip out of public consciousness.
The Party does not have a unified stance on Sonia Sotomayor and her nomination to the Supreme Court. In recent days Senator Sessions and Senator Grassley have announced their opposition, but Senators Graham, Collins, and Snowe have signaled their support. Moreover, during the open hearings on the nomination the Republican members on the Judiciary Committee largely concentrated on the nominee’s self-important “…wise Latina woman…” soundbite and ignored the fact that Judge Sotomayor’s rulings have been appealed to the U. S. Supreme Court eight times and the high court reversed her on five of those decisions. A reversal rate upwards of 60% would indicate that Sonia Sotomayor does not know the law, yet the GOP cannot find the fortitude to question her capability, much less oppose her nomination.
The picture is no brighter on any other issues. The Republicans will not dedicate themselves to a program of fiscal discipline, restrained spending, and/or lower taxes. President Obama’s Interior Department has announced that they will reverse the Bush decision to offer leases for offshore oil drilling. The rapid rise in gasoline prices during the late winter and spring was a direct consequence of this announcement, yet few Republicans, except Kay Bailey Hutchison, said anything about the occurrence. Finally, enough Republicans defected to the other side on the Global Warming scheme to give Obama a victory and a start on wrecking the American economy for good.
While the Party does have some promising figures in increasingly high profile positions many who seemed ready to take the big step forward, namely Mark Sanford, David Vitter, and John Ensign committed political self-immolation. Meanwhile, the national Party continues to run away from conservative candidates and sometimes actively works to defeat them. The Pennsylvania Republicans attempted to draft Tom Ridge into the coming U.S. Senate primary so as to prevent Pat Toomey from winning the nomination. They believe that Toomey cannot defeat Arlen Specter and are determined to ram a “moderate” Republican down the throats of the Party faithful. We see the same scenario developing in Florida.
The Republicans also seem to lack any overall strategy in addition to their lack of a program and dearth of leadership. President Obama’s recent stumbles and perceived uncertainties have given some prominent Republicans hope. Waiting for the President to dance over the edge of a cliff is, however, no type of real strategy. The Republicans need to give the voters an affirmative reason to come back to the GOP. What is to be done? First, the Party must reorganize. They should thrash out a set of principles and stick to them. They also need to find an effective spokesperson for their principles and stump relentlessly for the Party cause. If the political class learned anything valuable from the Clinton Administration it was the effectiveness of endless and relentless propaganda. The Clinton mouthpieces did very well spreading lies…can’t the Republicans do just as well by spreading the truth?
Finally, the Party must make a real effort to reconnect with the 40% of the American who proudly claim to be conservative. It is true that a political party cannot cavalierly desert their own officeholders, but this is a two-way street. Did the GOP really lose much when Michael Bloomberg, and more recently Arlen Specter, left the Party? The weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth following the Democrats winning their 60th Senate seat might have been avoided if the RNC had chosen to fight for Norm Coleman and to prevent Al Franken from stealing Minnesota. A statement that the Republicans are the conservative party might drive some people away, but it will bring others into the fold.
Today, the Republican Party stands at a crossroads. Their numbers are bad, their morale is low, and even the President’s now visible vulnerability does not seem to translate into a GOP advantage. It is up to the Republican Party leaders to decide on a course of action. They can become, once again, the confident and intellectually dominant organ of American political life if they so choose. They might also doom themselves to half-party status or eventual disintegration if they move in a different direction. The nation awaits their answer.