The news this past week in the beer industry was not exactly unexpected, but it was just as jarring. After more than two decades of reigning as the #1 selling beer label, Bud Light was surpassed in market share by Modelo. The sustained social backlash to the brand has been something to marvel at, shown not to be a case of called-for boycotts, and is instead a legitimate customer revolt, one with sustained strength.
And now, we are seeing the press is having a difficult time dealing with it.
Initially, the reaction was something risible for journalists – conservatives are freaking out about a beer, this is the latest outrage in the culture wars, and just look at these hicks shooting cases with guns, and the like. But as the weeks went forward, the backlash only grew, and eventually, it became more than the claimed outlier cranks on social media behind this. As it stands now, it has been over two months since the Dylan Mulvaney controversy, and this backlash is not subsiding.
As a result, the revelatory reality that Bud Light has plunged from its two-decade perch atop beer sales is something the press has to report on, but they face a quandary; they need to reframe the story so it does not reflect the public sentiment against the trans agenda.
At CNN, John Berman introduced a segment filed by business correspondent Christine Romans, and the desperation to find reasons for the Queen of Beers to become conquered by Modelo is so apparent as to be laughable. While Berman and Romans allude to the Mulvaney controversy, they toss it in as a mere component as part of something that was inevitable – Bud Light was poised to be taken over by Modelo anyway!
Said Berman in his introduction:
After two decades, a new top-selling beer in the U.S. Mexican Lager Modelo Especial was the top-selling beer last month, overthrowing Bud Light. There are a couple of things at play here, including flat-out changing tastes, but also the backlash from the social media post by transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney.
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As he pitched over to Romans, she proceeded to focus on any and all aspects apart from the Mulvaney episode that could explain this shift in the top-selling beer position:
Bud Light, in the most recent month, Bud Light’s share of the market was less than Modelo. So it lost its top standing there. 8.4 percent of—of beer sales in May belong to Modelo, only 7.3 percent, Bud Light. Now, you’re right, there’s some changing tastes happening and also this is the month of May. There’s Cinco de Mayo, there’s also a really clever advertising promotion campaign from Modelo. And changing tastes. Analysts tell us that already there’s been an affinity, growing affinity for Mexican beer and spirits for some time now. So that’s sort of a tipping point that you’re seeing here.
Despite this strained attempt, Romans did have to concede there was the other component to all of this:
You mentioned the transgender influencer who had one can, one customized can of Bud Light, and did an Instagram post, and conservative media and conservative social media went on a very full, full, forceful boycott of—of the beer, and so that is one other kind of factor here at play.
Pretending this was a small aspect of the story, attempting to say it was due to conservative media, and diminishing this as simply a "factor" is ridiculous desperation. Adding to this effort was Julian Mark of the Washington Post. He, too, went the way of saying that Modelo's takeover was inevitable, even as he had to acknowledge that the Mulvaney reaction loomed over the process:
While recent events may have affected Bud Light sales, broad market trends were favoring Modelo even before the Mulvaney controversy. Consumers might be moving away from Bud Light because expanding the customer base for U.S. domestic beer continues to be a struggle for brewers.
He must be focused on the major brewers because coming out of the pandemic, craft brewers rebounded with sales better than the industry average. Julian also tries to find other reasons for this shift of preference, asking one industry analyst about a change in market preferences and if Cinco de Mayo was a significant cause – anything to diminish the import of the cultural blowback.
Those analysts have been looking for this change where Bud Light cedes its top position – but they estimated it would take place by 2030. Beer sales move at a gradual pace based on trends. When a new product comes along, it takes time for traction and growth to occur. When the craft beer movement arrived, it was a generational growth pattern. It takes time for entrenched drinkers to age out, for new drinkers to arrive, and/or for sippers to settle on a new preference.
These shifts take place like the changing of the tides. What we saw with Bud Light was a tidal wave of change. While Modelo has benefitted of late, with a bump in sales of around 12%, it has been far starker with Bud Light. Last week, Bud Light sales were off by -30%, and for the month of May, it lost one-quarter of its sales. That is huge and instantaneous, and the brewing industry does not operate on that timetable.
For these journos to pretend that the Mulvaney controversy was only a contributing component that only hastened the inevitable is laughable. We are watching a seismic shift taking place, bringing about an instant change that was not expected until the end of the decade.
These journalists want to pretend they are not watching an immediate repudiation of the narratives they have been forcing on the public.
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