Forget countries and think about clans and sects.
We often don’t realize how great we have it in the US. Imagine the Texas-Oklahoma border. There are two fellows living on either side of the state line. One is a Sooners fan with all of his heart, soul, and wallet. The other guy is a lifelong Longhorn and would sleep outdoors for a week to get good tickets to a home game. When the Sooners and Longhorns play, each dresses up in appropriate colors, spends hours at the game and screams vociferously for his team and against the other. While the two only live a mile from each other, each claims identity from his state and acts accordingly. Outside of matters of college sports, the two vote the same way and actually are good friends, working at the same firm.
This week, Israel destroyed the main UNRWA facility in Jerusalem. I noticed a long time ago that the UN always took prime real estate. Without UNRWA, Hamas could not have pulled off the October 7th massacre. UNRWA provided manpower, facilities, money, and cover for Hamas. As the UN people took care of all social needs in Gaza, Hamas could focus on building tunnels and preparing for the assault on southern Israel. I am glad that they are losing their facilities as there is no way to reform this organization.
And while the UN is a horrific and unsalvageable body, like a broken clock it can be right now and then. In 1947, it proposed a solution to the Arab-Jewish problem in British Mandate Palestine: it was a checkerboard map that would not require the mass movement of populations. Essentially, they looked to see where Jews and Arabs lived and built a map that made each region a part of two new states, one Jewish and the other Arab. The Jews accepted the plan, and the Arabs rejected it. War ensued, and Israel defeated not only the local Arabs but their “brothers” (they hate them too) from Egypt, Jordan, Syria, etc. The Zionists begged the local Arabs to stay and be part of the new Jewish state. Some stayed, while many left of their own will or with the encouragement of the Arab armies that wrongly promised a swift victory.
What the UN got right was that the region is made up less of states and more of clans, families, and religious groups. One of the major complaints against the post-World War I Sykes-Picot Agreement was that the division of new states out of the deceased Ottoman Empire failed to take into account that not all of the groups placed in say the new Lebanon could actually get along all that easily. Whereas our football friends have zero animosity outside of the stadium, Sunnis, Shiites, Druze, Alawites, Jews, Kurds, and various Christian denominations do not always get along perfectly. My wife served for a time in Bethlehem and she told me that the main church there was divided in ownership between different Christian denominations. Thus, to paint the building, there had to be agreement, as each group owned a different wall of the interior. What we see throughout the region is that various groups are getting tired of being pushed around by others. For example:
Recommended
- Lebanon: Christians and Sunnis have had enough of Hezbollah dragging their country down into economic and military ruin.
- Iran: Non-Muslim Persians have also had enough of nearly 5 decades of Islamist rule that has left the country poor, the economy in shambles, and the people under constant threat to toe the official religious line.
- Syria: Total basket case in which Sunni ISIS groups associated with the new Armani al-Julani are trying to wipe out Druze, Kurds, and Alawites. When one sees the total fear in the eyes of women taken prisoner by the Syrian Army soldiers, he know that their future is horrific or worse.
- Israel: Ultimately, the fight with Hamas and also the Palestinian Authority (PA) is about who is going to run the joint. Neither accepts any Jewish presence “between the river and the sea”, though the PA is good at lying about the same in order to get billions from the West. I include the PA with Hamas for the simple reason that they have turned down every offer of a solution and have made it years now without agreeing to sit with Israel to discuss a final peace plan. 90 year old Abu Mazen almost blew a gasket when Israel asked the PA for one thing: to recognize Israel as Jewish state. The Palestinians have insisted that any fantasy state they establish have no Jews in it; Israel currently has a 20% Arab population, and if you need a doctor, pharmacist, contractor, etc., it may well be an Arab with whom you are dealing.
- Jordan: Jordan is mostly Palestinian. Sure, the ruling Hashemite tribe runs the show, but the actual population of Palestinian Arabs is over 60%. That is the reason why the present king and his father have always kept a very low profile with regards to their relations with Israel and often criticize the Jewish state. Yasser Arafat tried several times to kill King Hussein and would have gladly taken the reins of Jordanian Palestine A in order to wage war on Israel to conquer Palestine B.
When Americans see their common identity as being more important than local or other differences, then America is unstoppable. Unfortunately, we see many on the left who hate America and by extension Americans who don’t think like them. One would hope that those attacking ICE officers would love the country enough to put away their hatred in order to feel a unity with those officers, but not a chance. They have been brainwashed to hate America and there is no point of contact that would join them with MAGA Americans. In the Middle East, the hatred of Muslims towards Jews, Kurds, etc. is the major driver of the divisions that keep the region unstable. Israeli Arabs do not feel threatened here, and one can find them wherever Jews hang out. On the other hand, a Jew cannot safely enter Palestinian areas, because his presence might lead to his death. Kurds and Druze are being attacked by the ISIS terrorists that make up the Syrian Army. Both groups as well as the Alawites would like to have their own autonomous regions, which of course Al-Julani would never accept.
The major problem in the West is that there are very few politicians or diplomats who understand the breakdown of populations along religious/ethnic/family lines. In the Palestinian areas, families often associate either with Hamas or the PA. The clans are the working groups in Gaza, and Israel has learned to work with the PA-leaning families to attack and weaken Hamas. Look at David Beckham’s problems of getting his son and daughter-in-law to speak with him, and then multiple this problem by the millions. Hezbollah and Hamas refuse to disarm because they realize that their only power and self-protection is in having weapons. If Hezbollah gave up its guns, it would fear Christian attacks. In Iran, the Shiite mullocracy is trying to hold on against a diverse population that hates having their leaders’ religion rammed down their throats. And while I don’t expect that each of the countries in this neck of the wood will be broken down into little cantons, each representing one homogeneous group, I would hope that leaders in the West would appreciate the challenges of making peace in “Syria” when the country is made up of several identify groups hunted by al-Julani and his Turkish paymasters.
The Middle East has been compared to a large bazaar. The more you get into it, the more confusing and complex it becomes.
Editor’s Note: Do you enjoy Townhall’s conservative reporting that takes on the radical left and woke media? Support our work so that we can continue to bring you the truth.
Join Townhall VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member