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Another 'Oh My' 2024 National Poll Just Dropped

Guy Benson
Guy Benson  |  March 20, 2024 3:45 PM
AP Photo/Jeff Dean

Last week, we noted that President Joe Biden did not enjoy any serious or measurable polling 'bounce' from a State of the Union Address that his allies breathlessly insisted had been a smashing success.  In reality, the president's historically weak standing remained frozen in place, and had even deteriorated in some respects.  It's time to add another data point to the pile. A fresh national poll from Ann Selzer and Grinnell College shows former President Donald Trump opening up a substantial lead over the incumbent, outside the margin of error. I emphasize 'national' because Selzer has earned a reputation as the 'gold standard' polling guru of Iowa.  Trump leading Biden by seven points in the Hawkeye state wouldn't exactly be earth-shattering, considering that Trump carried Iowa by roughly nine points in both 2016 and 2020.  If anything, a seven-point lead might be spun as an under-performance.  

But, again, this new margin doesn't arrive in a statewide poll.  It's the result of a nationwide survey:


Trump leads Biden by 16 percentage points among independent voters in these numbers, with an awful lot of unaffiliated voters also looking elsewhere for options:


A big element of Trump's apparent overall advantage is that in retrospect, voters view his job performance as president significantly more favorably than they did while he was in office.  Perhaps they're looking at Biden's governance and pining for recent alternatives:


For what it's worth, a number of other pollsters show the race tied, or Biden slightly leading.  But as Bevan points out, the Real Clear Politics average shows Trump currently ahead, in the aggregate.  As for the key battleground states, new batches of data also point to a Trump lead, basically across the board:

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These surveys show Trump at or above 50 percent (when leaners are included) in head-to-heads against Biden, and leading by similar margins with other names on the ballot. No wonder Joe Biden is reportedly angry and worried behind the scenes:

President Joe Biden was seething. In a private meeting at the White House in January, allies of the president had just told him that his poll numbers in Michigan and Georgia had dropped over his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.  Both are battleground states he narrowly won four years ago, and he can’t afford any backsliding if he is to once again defeat Donald Trump. He began to shout and swear, a lawmaker familiar with the meeting said...For months, Democrats have watched the 2024 campaign unfold with rising alarm as the sitting president struggles to gain ground against his defeated predecessor. Frustrations rippling through the party have reached the top, with Biden at times second-guessing travel decisions and communications strategies that have left much of the electorate clueless about his record, interviews with nearly 20 lawmakers, present and past administration officials and Biden allies show...History suggests it will be tough for him to recover. Biden’s 38% approval rating at this stage in the calendar is lower than that of the last three presidents who went on to lose re-election: Trump (48%), George H.W. Bush (39%) and Jimmy Carter (43%), according to Gallup survey data.


This is the essence of how the Democrats will seek to present this election to voters over the next seven-plus months:


I'll leave you with this, from Special Report last evening:


Tags: 2024 ELECTION

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