A week ago, President Biden delivered an angry, partisan State of the Union, much of which he shouted through, at rapid speed. He slurred words, made big mistakes while ad-libbing, and obliterated the line between a presidential address and an inflammatory campaign speech. But we were informed by Democrats and the media that the speech was a 'fiery' and impassioned 'win' for Biden because he showed energy (his hyper yelling was said to refute the cognitive decline narrative) and ripped into Republicans and the Supreme Court (hated by leftists, including most journalists). They insisted that the evening was a grand success. They insisted this so loudly and so often, it was as if they were trying to convince themselves of their own words. Biden, the story went, owned the stage and the opposition. A triumph. Or, to borrow a phrase, a masterclass.
Then the actual numbers started to float in, like turds in the Biden punchbowl. CNN's poll of SOTU viewers (a self-selecting group that traditionally skews heavily in favor of the man giving the speech) rated it least favorably of Biden's four such addresses. And the polling bounce that might be expected by such a supposed success has not materialized. Biden's approval rating in the Real Clear Politics average is stagnant. On March 3rd, a few days prior to the big spectacle, he was underwater by 16 points in that aggregation. A week after the event, Biden is...16 points underwater. On March 7, the day of the State of the Union, Biden trailed Donald Trump in the RCP head-to-head polling average by 1.8 percentage points. One week later, Biden has moved that needle by a fraction of a percentage point -- in the wrong direction. Trump's lead is now 2.1 points. In the all-important battleground states, the story looks strikingly similar to how it has for many weeks, at this point. New data points from Fox News:
NEW Fox News polling from PENNSYLVANIA:
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) March 13, 2024
Trump 49
Biden 47
From ARIZONA:
Trump 49
Biden 45
That's not the only fresh survey showing Trump ahead in Pennsylvania:
📊 PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Emerson
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 14, 2024
President
🟥 Trump 47% (+4)
🟦 Biden 43%
🟥 Trump 44% (+4)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 5%
🟨 West 1%
🟩 Stein 1%
With leaners
🟥 Trump 52% (+4)
🟦 Biden 48%
—
Senate
🟦 Casey 45% (+4)
🟥 McCormick 41%
With leaners
🟦 Casey 52% (+4)
🟥 McCormick 48%… pic.twitter.com/6SkcBRUQZY
Emerson also has Biden down nine points in Ohio, basically in line with the 2016 and 2020 outcomes. Another pollster gives Trump a five point lead in Nevada. Despite Biden's suggestion that he's actually ahead in most of the latest polling, ludicrously accusing the media of not reporting all that good news for him, the numbers we're sharing here are not cherry-picked outliers:
NEW: @FiveThirtyEight polling average
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
• Georgia: Trump +7.8
• North Carolina: Trump +6.5
• Arizona: Trump +5.4
• Nevada: Trump +5.3
• Michigan: Trump +3.9
• Wisconsin: Trump +3.2
• Pennsylvania: Trump +0.6https://t.co/sOrrv5X06Q pic.twitter.com/3YZJ6TQr2J
Zooming back out nationally, I'll leave you with this, which tells the story of why Trump -- despite being unpopular and polarizing -- is in front of the incumbent right now. People think Trump did a better job as president:
Recommended
Suffolk/USA Today: Do you Approve or Disapprove of the job (X) is doing/did as president?
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 13, 2024
Biden: 41-55 (-14)
Trump: 49-47 (+2)
Independents
Biden 32-63 (-31)
Trump 51-44 (+7)
538: #7 (2.9/3.0) | 1,000 RV | 3-8/11 https://t.co/XI740FBjpa pic.twitter.com/dJqGddpfTA
