After watching the second presidential debate Wednesday night, my general impressions were that (1) it wouldn't change the dynamics of the race much, which was good news for frontrunner and non-participant Donald Trump, and (2) of those on stage, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had the most consistently strong answers and a few 'moments.' For that reason, I named him the debate winner on my radio show. Within a few hours, a Washington Post/Ipsos poll of GOP viewers was released, reinforcing that take-away. DeSantis was named the victor by a double-digit margin over his closest competitor:
IPSOS/WP POLL: Who do you think performed best in the GOP primary debate? (N=730)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 28, 2023
DeSantis 33%
Haley 18%
Ramaswamy 15%
Christie 6%
Scott 6%
Pence 3%
Burgum 2%
---
Considering voting for in the GOP primary after the debate (n=2,262)
Trump 63%
DeSantis 51%
Haley 36%
Ramaswamy 27%…
I suspect DeSantis was seen as the best performer because of his unwillingness to get into the mud with anyone, his pointed refusal to participate in the 'Survivor'-style question presented near the end of the evening, and substantive answers on issues ranging from education to abortion. Others had solid exchanges and answers, but he was the most consistent. Here's the education response, which began with a sound rejection of the slavery curriculum smear the progressive Univision moderator raised:
Ron DeSantis claps back at a moderator who says people are "still hurt" by Florida's curriculum on black history:
— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) September 28, 2023
"That's a HOAX that was perpetrated by Kamala Harris!" pic.twitter.com/eX6nC0PBtd
And perhaps the biggest element of DeSantis' message and appeal is that he doesn't talk about doing things. He doesn't try to do things. Like it or not, he has achieved a barrage of policy results, and painted his swing state bright red:
“I've done it, while others have talked about it.”pic.twitter.com/Be91kB9Byn
— Casey DeSantis (@CaseyDeSantis) September 28, 2023
Stylistically, I do think that the forced smile plastered on his face, likely because his consultants tell him he needs to seem more likable, needs to go. It's not real, it looks awkward, and I think he'd be better served with a neutral look than straining to smile like a kid on school photo day. In any case, does any of this matter? In short, probably not. The far-and-away favorite in the primary didn't bother to show up, and is also planning to skip the next scheduled debate in November. His leads remain huge. Even in DeSantis' make-or-break early state of Iowa, Trump is ahead by 30 in the latest CBS News poll. The lead is even larger in New Hampshire:
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Trump, the national frontrunner, also leads the GOP primary field comfortably in both IA and NH.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) September 26, 2023
His current margins would translate to him getting half of Iowa’s delegates and the lion’s share in New Hampshire. https://t.co/EsnNd6JKbn pic.twitter.com/z3wwxNsVAm
Is it "over"? Maybe. If there's any chance for someone to make this a competitive race, it's certainly true that the field needs to winnow. Significantly. And very soon. And then there's this glimmer for whomever might remain standing as a potential alternative:
What actually matters is what these people thought of the debate/what they’ll hear about it/whether they’re truly undecided and shopping around: pic.twitter.com/Sv8322QHbV
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 28, 2023
Well, here's a focus group of exactly these sorts of voters in Iowa after the forum ended:
IOWA FOCUS GROUP SAYS DESANTIS WAS THE CLEAR DEBATE WINNER pic.twitter.com/yZZtLSvI8h
— DeSantis War Room 🐊 (@DeSantisWarRoom) September 28, 2023
DeSantis wants a one-on-one shot at Trump, which Team Trump will obviously shrug off and avoid. We'll see if a more aggressive posture toward the frontrunner might move the polls at all for DeSantis -- and this is definitely and notably more aggressive:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) September 28, 2023
I'll leave you with this, which could get interesting tonight:
Ron DeSantis will sit down with Bill Maher for an interview that will air on Real Time with Bill Maher at 10pm ET on HBO.
— Sam Stein (@samstein) September 28, 2023
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