One poll might be an outlier:
Iowa poll (Monmouth / likely voters)
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) July 12, 2016
Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
**
2012: Obama won by 6
2008: Obama won by 10
Another data set could be a coincidence:
Holy Quinnipiac
— Aaron Blake (@AaronBlake) July 13, 2016
FL: Trump 42, Clinton 39
OH: Trump 41, Clinton 41
PA: Trump 43, Clinton 41
...and he's +5 +1 and +6 including 3rd partiers
A third looks a lot more like a pattern:
Among likely voters in WI, Clinton 45%, Trump 41%, 9% support neither. In June, it was 46%/37%/13%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) July 13, 2016
That's a trio of pollsters measuring virtual ties in five swing states, with Hillary Clinton's healthy Wisconsin lead slashed in half -- although her advantage there is slightly more comfortable with independent candidates' names in the mix. McClatchy's new national numbers also indicate that the presidential race has become more competitive, showing a Clinton lead of just three points head-to-head, down from nine in the series' previous installment (way back in March). Any guesses on what might be fueling Hillary's troubles? After all, Trump is mostly benefitting from anti-Hillary erosion, rather than his own popularity or support pushing above the low-40's. I have a theory, and it's an obvious one: Mrs. Clinton was very publicly exposed and rebuked as a reckless liar by the FBI last week, as her myriad untruths melted under official scrutiny. She and her team have responded by playing make believe and obstinately deflecting and denying. Multiple polls now demonstrate that most voters believe she should have been prosecuted for her intentional misconduct; it seems as though Americans aren't fond of unaccountable politicians who endanger national security for their own selfish ends, then lie about it for more than a year. Her trust numbers, already in the toilet, are swirling downward:
Post-FBI/Comey/emails Q-poll on whether Hillary or Trump is more honest:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 13, 2016
OH: Trump +10
FL: Trump +13
PA: Trump +15
And, for now at least, her unpopularity has overtaken his:
Also from the new battleground Q-poll, net unfavorability:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 13, 2016
FL: Trump (-16) HRC (-24)
OH: Trump (-25), HRC (-25)
PA: Trump (-19), HRC (-34)
Liberals have taken to dismissing Quinnipiac's methodology as slanted toward the GOP, but that outfit has earned a very respectable A-minus rating by FiveThirtyEight, and their new findings aren't the stark departure from the norm that some predicted they would be:
New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls:
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) July 13, 2016
IA: Clinton 42, Trump 39
OH: Clinton 39, Trump 39
PA: Clinton 45, Trump 36
July 5-10, MOE +/- 3.4%
Q and NBC/Marist are worlds apart on Pennsylvania, but both show the Ohio contest exactly tied. And the NBC survey reflects what Monmouth found in Iowa -- a race within the margin of error. I'll leave you with two points that confirm that today is a good one for Team Trump, followed by two mitigating items. Pick the data points that you like, and run with them America: (1) Trump is competitive with Hillary in battleground states despite being at an enormous spending disadvantage. (2) That's probably because thanks to Trump's on-air ubiquity, many people think they've seen Trump ads, when they actually haven't seen any. (3) Cutting against The Donald's improved standing in Iowa is a fresh Monmouth poll with him down big in Colorado, a state where Hillary has traditionally struggled. (4) This:
Key point. Hillary's median poll number is typically Trump's high end one. Continuing trend. https://t.co/cmfroB42V6
— Marcus Hawkins (@HawkinsUSA) July 13, 2016
One more thing, via Byron York. The mood is right for a major change election, but can Trump overcome widespread doubts about his fitness for office? And can he prevent Hillary from reversing her richly-earned anti-momentum?
Q poll question: The old way of doing things no longer works and we need radical change. Strongly/somewhat agree: FL 71 OH 73 PA 72.
— Byron York (@ByronYork) July 13, 2016
UPDATE - At the tail end of a rough polling day for Hillary, Fox News drops two ugly ones on Trump:
New Fox Poll: @HillaryClinton vs. @realDonaldTrump in Colorado and Virginia. #SpecialReport pic.twitter.com/2cugcsCwel
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 13, 2016
With Libertarians & Greens included, Trump's in the 20's (!) in Colorado. https://t.co/83nOXHYqg5
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) July 13, 2016
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