a succinct explanation of why two recent polls aren't to be believed. No, Barbara Boxer does not lead by eight points
in California, and no, Rand Paul's lead has not been whittled down to two points
CA: Including leaners, the breakdown between Democrats, independents, and Republicans was … 55/9/35. To put that in perspective for you, the exit poll sample in California from the 2008 presidential election was 42/28/30. For the Boxer/Fiorina numbers to be right, you have to believe that, in this year of the big red wave, somehow California Democrats and left-leaning indies are way more motivated to vote than they were at the height of Hopenchange with Obama at the top of the ticket.
KY: Unmentioned in the Herald-Journal’s story: The Survey USA poll that showed Paul up by 15 had a D/I/R sample of 47/10/42, which is in line with the 2008 Kentucky presidential exit poll sample of 47/15/38. Like I said up top, it stands to reason that Republican turnout will be better this year than it was two years ago. So what’s the sample in this new poll showing the race now within the margin of error? Why, it’s … 51/12/38.
Team Carly sends along their reaction to the LA Times poll, echoing Allahpundit's analysis and pointing out that their ad campaign against Boxer just started a few days ago, and will intensify over the next five weeks:
This poll simply is not an accurate nor reliable reflection of voter interest or likely participation in the upcoming election; it over estimates Democratic voters participation by a wide margin hence its skewed result. Barbara Boxer has spent several million dollars mischaracterizing both her record and the record of Carly Fiorina so any lead that the she possesses will be short lived. Our ads have run for less than 48 hours but as voters become aware of the facts about Barbara Boxer, a hyper-partisan career politician, the dynamics in this race will quickly change. Over the course of the next 38 days the spotlight will be squarely on Barbara Boxer and the low road she has taken toward failing the people of California. Carly will stand in stark contrast to Boxer’s record of failure: a bi-partisan problem solver who will use her real world business experience to find common sense solutions to solving our state and nation’s problems.
Remember, Jim Geraghty's political svengali known as "Obi Wan" predicted
that Democrats and their media henchmen would try to manufacture a last-minute "Dems are surging" narrative using bogus polls and contrived examples. It's important not to be overconfident about November 2nd, but it's equally imperative that we remain vigilant for misleading memes generated by the Left solely to discourage conservative voters.