We are talking about a Super Bowl-size audience as more people than ever
turned to the Vice Presidential debate last Thursday. Who won? It
apparently depends upon who was asked and how the question was phrased.
CBS and CNN both had overnight polls and both claimed that Senator
Joseph R. (Joe) Biden, Jr. won by a landslide. But pollster Frank Luntz
assembled a large group in St. Louis, about half of whom had voted for
President George W. Bush and the other half had voted for Senator John
F. Kerry in 2004. That group overwhelmingly felt that Governor Sarah
Heath Palin had won the debate. These were all undecided voters and a
number of them said they were now inclined toward the McCain-Palin
ticket on account of her performance.
While that debate drew an unprecedented audience, it is doubtful that
many voters will cast their vote based upon their evaluation of the Vice
Presidential candidates. One thing which may help Senator John S.
McCain, III is that 55% in the CBS Poll believe that Governor Palin is
qualified to be President, should that become necessary. The percentage
had been much lower in a previous CBS Poll.
There is now less than a month before voters cast their ballots in the
Presidential election. Senator Barack Hussein Obama has a significant
lead at this point. In fact, no Presidential candidate equally far
behind as McCain a month out has won the Presidency. Obama, upon that
basis, should be breaking out the champagne. But Obama is not, in light
of the Bradley Factor. That refers to the gubernatorial campaign in
California during which the Mayor of Los Angeles polled far ahead of the
Attorney General of California. However, when the votes were counted
Mayor Tom Bradley was defeated by 50,000 votes. Respondents to polling
firms wanted to be politically correct by saying that Bradley was their
candidate. When they got into the privacy of the voting booth they voted
the other way. Obama worries about the Bradley Factor because in several
primary contests he over-polled the actual result.
It may not only be the Bradley Factor which has caused the Obama camp to
pause. Former Clinton advisor Dick Morris believes that Obama has peaked
too soon. He has forecast that Obama support will begin to decline in
another week and that by election day the race will be dead even again.
Of course, Morris is not always correct in his analysis. He thought
McCain's move to suspend his campaign in order to work on the bailout
was "brilliant." It turned out the public viewed this as somewhat of a
gimmick. McCain's support declined each day from the time he suspended
his campaign.