Michael Barone

Just about everyone noticed Hillary Clinton's scathing comments on President Obama's foreign policy in her interview with The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg.

But almost no one has noticed where Clinton hasn't been seen. That's on the campaign trail or at fundraisers for Democrats running for the Senate.

Obama hasn't been on the campaign trail much either, for the very good reason that he has low approval ratings in the seven states carried by 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney where Democrats are defending Senate seats.

But at least Obama's been busy raising money; up in Martha's Vineyard, seemingly the heartland of today's Democratic Party, he spoke, between golf games, at his 400th political fundraiser.

Clinton here is following the opposite course of a politician she has been compared to frequently, though usually not by her admirers: Richard Nixon.

As Patrick Buchanan shows in his recent and characteristically vividly written book, "The Greatest Comeback: How Richard Nixon Rose From Defeat to Create the New Majority," Nixon campaigned tirelessly for Republican candidates in the 1966 midterm elections.

That election produced big Republican gains, including 47 House seats (contrary to the obituaries written for the party after Barry Goldwater's 1964 defeat), and helped elect Nixon president in 1968.

So why isn't Clinton following Nixon's example? For reasons as clear-eyed as her takedowns of Obama. First, she is in a stronger position to win her party's nomination today than Nixon was 48 years ago.

Second, she, unlike Nixon in 1966 and like most sober-minded observers this year, doesn't see this as a good year for her party.

One reason is structural. The Senate seats up for grabs this year are in states that, on average, voted 52 percent for Romney and 46 percent for Obama in 2012. Obama won by an average of only 50.1 percent in seats now held by Democrats and received only 39 percent of the vote in states with seats held by Republicans.

We are not likely to see Clinton campaigning in the seven states with Democratic senators that Romney carried in 2012. Not even in Arkansas, Louisiana or West Virginia, which Bill Clinton carried twice, or Montana, which he carried in 1992.

A year ago, Democrats hoped to hold onto their Senate majority by stressing local issues, accusing Republicans of waging a "war on women" and capitalizing on the defects and mistakes of Republican candidates.


Michael Barone

Michael Barone, senior political analyst for The Washington Examiner (www.washingtonexaminer.com), is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. COPYRIGHT 2011 THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER. DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM