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Tipsheet

NYT: Yeah, Our Final Election Poll Was Probably Wrong

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

The New York Times published their final 2024 presidential election poll on Sunday, just two days ahead of Election Day November 5. 

"Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump stayed deadlocked to the finish in the final New York Times/Siena College polls of the 2024 presidential election, though there may be a hint she has ticked up in the final stretch," the New York Times reports. "The race remains essentially even across the seven states likeliest to decide the presidency."

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The results show Harris ahead, but there's a big catch: the poll is probably wrong. 

"Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a larger disparity than our earlier polls this year, and it’s not much better than our final polls in 2020 — even with the pandemic over. It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again,” the NYT concedes. "A word of caution: Hypothetically, many of these 'late deciders' might have told a pollster earlier that they were Harris voters — if only we had called them at the time and asked them to formulate an opinion they hadn’t yet made. As a result, the responses to this question don’t necessarily explain the shift in the polls — even if they do align with the trend in this case."

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Political veterans aren't convinced Republican Trump voters are being accurately represented. 

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