Jon Ralston has been covering the early voting dumps in Nevada and noted that the Republican rural surge was something to behold—historic actually. The returns from GOP voters have never been this high in the Harry Reid machine era. That’s not to say that Trump and the GOP will take the state, as early returns seldom indicate the final result. There’s the issue that the GOP vote could be cannibalized on Election Day. It’s the cardinal rule regarding these trends, as Ralston noted in his prediction post.
He goes down the line for all the statewide and local races, but for president, he barely gives Kamala the edge over Trump. And by that, I mean we’re in recount territory with these splits:
I’ve never missed a Nevada presidential call (I have botched races down-ballot) but this one is the hardest since I started doing this – more on that below. But that forecast and all of the others are not just based on early voting data, but also on historical experience, my sources on both sides and, yes, my gut. I think it’s wrong not to explain a rationale for predictions, too. So:
Elections, as always, are about a lot of things, but when distilled, they are about math. And the math this year is confounding.
The early vote is different from any since this data was kept in such detail, and I began analyzing it. Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.
I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog — that concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. But my theory of the case is there are still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats and the GOP partial cannibalization of its Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory but perhaps not quite get there with others. Which is which?
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President: I have been calling this The Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and Election Day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides – at least people who understand the data on both sides – believe this will be close. That’s because, if past is prologue in the mail-ballot era (last two cycles), tens of thousands of mail ballots will come in between now and Friday (the deadline). It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up? It’s really a coin flip, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I have gone back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazing over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.
Good morning from The #WeMatter State.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2024
Not much mail overnight -- 10K or so. Dems won big but picked up about 2K. Indies had most votes.
R lead still over 42K.
I will post my predictions late tonight or Monday AM.
Now to dig into NYT poll crosstabs...
Blog post later.
NYT/Siena:
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2024
Harris+3
Harris+8 in Clark; Biden won Clark by 9.
Indies+9.
Hispanics, 65-33 (if true, she will win NV, but is it?)
Self-ID party reg (don't like self-ID): 30%D, 32%R, 30% indie (I think electorate will be a little more R)
No "none of these candidates" choice https://t.co/1K8D44TGta
Rare 6 PM post from SOS doesn't chamge much, just some mail from Washoe and a handful in rurals.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 3, 2024
GOP gained a couple hundred, now above 44,500.
More later if I am awake later.
Ralston added that it’s also about how independent voters split. Kamala collapses in Nevada if they don’t follow her lead.
It’s something to watch, but that margin will be tight. I forgot that Nevada is the only state where 'none of these options' is a choice on the ballot.
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