Now that Rick Santorum has "suspended" his campaign, we can stop pretending and can say what has been clear for weeks: Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee for president. The general election campaign has begun.
In some quarters, it is assumed that Barack Obama will be re-elected without too much difficulty. There are reports that staffers at Obama's Chicago headquarters consider Romney's candidacy a joke.
One suspects the adults there take a different view. For the fundamentals say that this will be a seriously contested race, with many outcomes possible. Obama's job-approval numbers in the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls hover at 48 percent positive, 47 percent negative. That's on the cusp between victory and defeat.
Obama leads Romney in recent polls by 48 to 43 percent. Note that Obama's percentage does not exceed his job approval. And Romney does not maximize the potential Republican vote.
Romney carries bruises, some self-inflicted, from the primary process, and his unfavorable numbers far outnumber his favorables. He got more negative than positive press coverage (interestingly, on Fox News as well as mainstream media) even as he was winning the nomination.
One reason is that his campaign and the super PAC backing him have spent most of their ad dollars battering down successive rivals who rose in the polls. The positive case for Romney has gotten much less of an airing.
But general elections involving sitting presidents usually turn out to be verdicts on the incumbent. Challengers who meet minimal standards tend to win if most voters want the incumbent out.
Which is, or is close to being, the case today. Note that the two national pollsters who limit their samples to likely voters, Rasmussen and Bloomberg, show the race a tie. Obama does better with the larger universes of registered voters and all adults. But polls show that this year, unlike 2008, Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting than Democrats.
You see a similar picture when you look at polls in the 11 states that were close last time and are generally considered targets now. Not on the list are Indiana and Missouri, whose 21 electoral votes seem safely Republican this time, and New Mexico, whose five electoral votes seem safe Democratic.
Recent polls in these 11 states show Obama ahead of Romney in every state but Iowa. But they also show him topping 50 percent only in Wisconsin.
Obama seems to be running slightly better than last time in Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, and slightly weaker in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Iowa, and about the same in Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, with no recent polling in New Hampshire.
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