As hard as pollsters try, it is almost impossible to glean a sample of actual likely voters in an off-year election. Particularly this year, it is difficult to distinguish between dutiful voters who say they are likely to vote and those who are actually going to make it to the polls. As in any off-year election, turnout matters.
According to the latest Gallup Poll, Republicans only enjoy a 3-point lead in the generic party ballot among all registered voters. But among those most likely to vote, the edge expands to 18 points (56-38). Twice as many Republicans report themselves to be "very enthusiastic" about voting as Democrats in the survey.
Remember that Barack Obama got about the same percentage of white votes in 2008 as Kerry won in 2004. His victory was entirely due to a big increase in black turnout (from 11 percent of the vote in 2004 to 14 percent in 2008) and in his greater popularity among Latinos. Turnout elected Obama, and turnout will defeat his congressional majority. The Democrats are widening the enthusiasm gap against them by running exclusively negative campaigns against their Republican insurgent rivals. The vast proportion of Democratic and allied independent expenditure media is negative, portraying Republican congressional candidates as tax evaders, spousal abusers, mob-linked, eccentric flakes, sexual molesters and absentee officeholders (all actual charges against key GOP candidates). While these ads may chip away at the Republican vote share in the polls, they do nothing to generate a Democratic turnout.
The Democrats are without a theme, a message or a positive reason to go to the polls and vote. Negative ads are supposed to depress turnout -- the last thing Democrats need. But when they come up against Republican enthusiasm, they may not do much to check the GOP rise.
But advertising is not the central event of the 2010 elections. Mass rallies and one-on-one soliciting are the keys to the outcome. Between the tea party groups and Americans for Prosperity, there is a vast army of conservatives bringing the GOP message to the streets of America.
And the Republicans are just gearing up to turn out their voters. I have collaborated with Citizens United -- whose Supreme Court case so roiled the Democrats -- to produce an election-themed movie titled "Battle for America" (www.battleforamericamovie.com).
With Newt Gingrich, Ann Coulter, Fred Barnes and I describe how crucial are the stakes in this coming election. This film and others are spreading like wildfire through the ranks of the tea party groups and are being shown in tens of thousands of homes throughout the nation to the friends, family and neighbors of activists.