Don't Look Now, But GDP Estimates Are Moving Up In A Meaningful Way

It was another yo-yo session for the market on Wednesday that came up short in its last ditched effort to rally into the close. The market breadth was worse than the prints for the major indices.

NYSE

• Advancers: 1,341
• Decliners: 1,585
• Up Volume: 1.1 billion
• Down Volume: 2.1 billion

NASDAQ

• Advancers: 1,295
• Decliners: 1,789
• Up Volume: 806.1 million
• Down Volume: 1.36 billion

This range-bound action might be frustrating for some investors, but I think it’s great that selling is finding buyers, and even stock pops are being faded. After a great start to 2019, this is a consolidation that was expected. Plus, the market is at an impasse waiting for the next round of big economic data, including next week’s jobs report and earnings that roll out next month.

Meanwhile, there is that long-awaited US-China trade deal, which has now lurched into the category of “wake me when you’re done.” 

Of course, the next big move isn’t ordained to be higher, so the lingering can also see the anxiety morph into selling if there are more bumps in the road. However, the bias is to the upside and the road is paved for a big move higher, but investors need a push. Speaking of the paved roads, low expectations are a bumpy terrain, but that might be changing as well. Perhaps conventional wisdom has been overzealous in bracing for a massive slowdown in the economy.

Pumping Up The GDP

Don’t look now, but the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates are beginning to move up in a meaningful way, and if correct, it will have everyone sharpening their pencils and adjusting their models.  The Atlanta Fed now sees the first quarter GDP at 1.5% from just 0.2% two weeks ago.

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After the Close

Lululemon (LULU) posted monster results, reminding investors that while Levi Strauss (LEVI) had a hot public offering, the public is still hot over athletic-wear. The company beat in revenue and earnings and various metrics were very impressive:

• Comp-store sales: +6% (+7% constant currency)
• Gross Margin: 57.3 +100 Basis Point (BPS)
• Operating Margin: 28.4 +80 (BPS)
• Direct to Consumer: +37%

International growth is “much faster” than North America as the company is moving the needle in Asia and Europe.

Guidance was well above Wall Street consensus.

First Quarter (1Q)

• Revenue: $750 million, the Street: $742 million
• Earnings: $0.70, the Street: $0.67

Fiscal Year (FY)

• Revenue: $3.74 billion, the Street: $3.71
• Earnings: $4.55 the Street: $4.40

Other big-retail movers after the bell:

• American Clothing Company (PVH): +9.5%
• Five Below (FIVE): +2.5%

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Today’s Session

GDP

GDP for the fourth quarter came in a little less than anticipated, 2.2% from 2.6%.  There was a sharp reversal in government spending (state and local), declining 1.3% from 0.3%.  Also adding to the cut was softer consumer spending and reduced business investment, which will may lead to a softer 1^st quarter 2019.

• Adjusted pretax corporate profits dropped a bit, down .04%, for the first time in about two years
• Consumer spending was lowered to 2.5% from 2.8% due to weaker purchases of recreational vehicles
• Business fixed investment was cut from 3.9% to 3.1% as a result of lowered estimates in software and intellectual property spending

Overall, GDP for all of 2018 was 2.9%, matching 2015 GDP, and the best read since the recession 10 years ago.

Oil Watch

Oil prices are extending losses after President Trump tweeted this morning that oil prices have risen too high and called the OPEC to do what's necessary to mitigate the price increase. 

U.S. priced oil (WTI) has been pulling back, after trading above $60 on Tuesday. Yesterday, the U.S. government report revealed that U.S. crude supplies surprisingly rose by 2.8 million barrels for the week ended March 22, while analysts were expecting a fall of 2.2 million barrels. 

Donald J. Trump Tweet

?@realDonaldTrump

"Very important that OPEC increase the flow of Oil. World Markets are fragile, price of Oil getting too high. Thank you!"