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Thursday, October 09, 2008
Robert Novak :: Townhall.com Columnist
Credit Default Swaps
by Robert Novak
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With unemployment at 10.2%, what will happen by the end of Obama's first term?



WASHINGTON, D.C. -- "60 Minutes," the popular CBS news program, normally doesn't deal with global finance, but last Sunday (Oct. 5) its lead story tried to isolate the cause of the current global financial meltdown. It selected a financial derivative: credit default swaps.

A credit default swap is nothing more than insurance that a bond transaction will be repaid. The problem is that this has developed into a massive market estimated in the United States by participants in the market itself at a staggering $60 trillion. Nobody denies the usefulness of credit default swaps. The problem is that this market is totally unregulated. The use of the word "swap" makes it impossible for federal regulation, which would take place if it were identified as insurance.

The tone of the "60 Minutes" story was that this huge unregulated shadow market is a principal cause of the frightening global crisis. I could find no financial expert with whom I consulted who agreed with this analysis. They did say the big unregulated market has contributed to the chaos, but the root causes go deeper.

David Smick, a prominent financial consultant and author of a new book "The World Is Curved," attributes the deepening problem to "a dangerous ocean of money" around the world.

However, there is widespread agreement that this unregulated "shadow market" contributed to the chaos and must be regulated.

This supports the Democratic mantra that insufficient regulation by Washington is the cause of the current turmoil, but it hardly supports Barack Obama's thesis that the basic problem is the rich getting richer at the expense of ordinary investors.

The big investment banks, using these credit default swaps for their own benefit, ended up losing everything, as such famous financial houses as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers failed, the victims of their own greed.

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About The Author
Robert Novak (1931-2009) was a syndicated columnist and editor of the Evans-Novak Political Report.
 
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Just Start All Over
Let's just admit that there's no way out of the intentional or non-intentional collapse of the economy. The have nots are really headed to have nothing at this rate! We've been dupped by those who proved to be untrustworthy while they took our tax dollars and took down a nation. The government isn't bailing out the American people because the American people didn't do anything wrong - they're trying to save themselves from their unethical behaviors (some would say fraud, but let's be nice) against Americans and possibly the world - So, they should wipe the slate clean and start all over from scratch. Let's declare a recession or a depression because everyone is depressed by now. Let everyone keep their homes and as McCain suggests, reduce the loans to a 5% interest rate. We start drilling for oil and close our borders. We don't let any more foreigners into our country. We start making U.S. products again - make oil rich Iraq pay us back with oil for our sacrifyce and the billions we spent to free them and protect them. We China reciprocate with U.S. We stop buying inferior and unsafe products from Third World countries that are killing and injuring us. We reinstate the original U.S. Constitution and throw out the laws that violate our freedoms. We do as Palin does and get back to basics. We pray and go to church. We go out and shoot a moose and go back to traditions and if foreigners don't like our lifestyle then they can leave. Teach your kids reading, writing, and arithmetic, and morals, instead of promiscuous sex and all about abortions. Be kind to our family and friends and neighbors. Untrustworthy public servants got us on the wrong track and we need to vote them out. Take back your country and bring back morality because this train is about to crash head on and God's about to let go!

RealCon
About $300 billion in ARM mortgages began to be foreclosed in 2006. In many states, the properties have to be in arrears for at least 6 months before they people can be evicted. The majority of the foreclosures occured in Cali, where the bubble burst began.

By 2007 the real estate problem began to spread to Florida and other high risk areas. By the end of 2008, over $500 billion of properties nationwide were in default. This not only poisoned the MBSEs, but added to a glut of unoccupied homes. In 2007 the bubble officially burst, but in 2006 it was plain to see the ARMs were in trouble.
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