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Monday, March 24, 2008
Rich Lowry :: Townhall.com Columnist
Return of Inflation?
by Rich Lowry
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Beneath the headlines of Wall Street's financial crisis lurks the economic killer for ordinary Americans -- inflation.

It steals from the pocketbook of every American consumer, in an across-the-board regressive tax hitting especially hard those who spend most of their income on food and energy. It cuts into profits and washes away savings. And it has a self-perpetuating dynamic -- once people become habituated to inflation, it's devilishly hard to stamp out.

During the past year, the Consumer Price Index -- the so-called headline inflation rate -- has increased more than 4 percent. The Producer Price Index, measuring wholesale prices, is up more than 6 percent, and the price of imports is up 14 percent -- both at their highest rate in 20 years. The dollar is its weakest since 1971, a national embarrassment.

This is an economic environment that the Federal Reserve helped create. It fought a phantom deflation in 2002-2003 by cutting the federal funds rate to 1 percent and keeping it there for a year, blowing hot air into the credit and real estate bubbles. Now that those bubbles have burst in spectacular fashion, the Fed is trying to forestall or minimize a recession with more rate cuts.

In effect, the Fed is creating more dollar bills, and thus depreciating their value. This isn't the sole cause of price increases. An ill-conceived ethanol program has driven up food prices, and global demand is bidding up the price of oil. But oil wouldn't be at $100 a barrel if the dollar weren't so weak. The Fed's rate cuts benefit Wall Street by lowering the cost of borrowing and potentially homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages, but at the cost of everyone else who wasn't improvident in business dealings or home-buying.

Lower- and middle-income people bear the brunt. An analysis by The Washington Post found that prices for staples like groceries, gasoline and health care have risen 9.2 percent since 2006. According to its calculation, this price increase cost a middle-class family an extra $972 annually. Merrill Lynch says a greater proportion of consumers' disposable income went to paying for such staples -- 36 percent -- than at any time since the figure was first tracked in 1960.

Historically, countries saddled with a debt problem are tempted to inflate their way out of it, although it's an expedient more associated with Latin American basket cases than the United States of America.

The Fed argues that inflation will decline as the economy slows down. But the economy has already been slowing, and inflation has continued to increase. The price of commodities took a step downward only after the Fed didn't cut rates as much as expected last week, and two members of the Fed's Open Market Committee, worried about inflation, balked at even that cut. The Fed is going to have to stop cutting rates, even if Wall Street and Washington politicians yelp in protest.

As David Frum of the American Enterprise Institute has pointed out, we've been here before. In the early 1970s, prices were rising, but the Fed cut interest rates anyway to address corporate woes. We avoided a sharp recession in the short term, only to get a deep recession later in the decade -- coupled with runaway inflation. The age of "stagflation" was upon us. Inflation was wrung out of the system only when the Fed kept rates high during the double-dip recession of the early 1980s.

We're unlikely to experience anything like the double-digit inflation of the 1970s. Among other things, workers don't have the kind of automatic cost-of-living increases that sent wages and prices in an ever-upward spiral back then. But the Fed shouldn't abandon price stability in the cause of an hour-by-hour attempt to avoid the inevitable distress of working through the excesses of recent years.

The market is a savage taskmaster. It's pay me now, or pay me more later -- when inflation would make it all the more painful.

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About The Author
Rich Lowry is author of Legacy: Paying the Price for the Clinton Years .
 
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Voices crying in the wilderness
This information is available and most people seem to fear even reading about it, as to do so would make them a "conspiracy nutcase" as anyone who points out the crimes being committed against this nation by evil in high places.
Say like they do Ron Paul, or any such man who points to the problems and where they come from.

Like this man:

Larry Bates was a bank president for eleven years. As a member of the Tennessee House of Representatives, he chaired the committee on Banking and Commerce. He's also a former professor of economics and the author of the best-selling book The New Economic Disorder.

"I can tell you right now that there is going to be a crash of unprecedented proportions. A crash like we have never seen before in this country. The greatest shock of this decade is that more people are about to loose more money then at any

{p. 2} time before in history, but the second greatest shock will be the incredible amount of money a relatively small group of people will make at the same time. You see, in periods of economic upheaval in periods of economic crisis, wealth is not destroyed, it is merely tranferred." - Larry Bates


this man:

Banker and former Presidential candidate Charles Collins is a lawyer, has owned banks, and served as a bank director. He believes we'll never get out of debt because the Federal Reserve is in control of our money.

"Right now, it's perpetuated by the Federal Reserve making us borrow the money from them, at interest, to pay the interest that's already accumulated. So we cannot get out of debt the way we're going now."

http://users.cyberone.com.au/myers/money-masters.html

Yep. And Ron Paul is a ''kook''
--
Consider the following, voiced in the U.S. House of Representatives on 10 September 2002:


"Mr. Speaker, I rise to introduce legislation to restore financial stability to America's economy by abolishing the Federal Reserve....

"Since the creation of the Federal Reserve, middle and working-class Americans have been victimized by a boom-and-bust monetary policy. In addition, most Americans have suffered a steadily eroding purchasing power because of the Federal Reserve's inflationary policies. This represents a real, if hidden, tax imposed on the American people.

"From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies, to the burst of the dotcom bubble last year, every economic downturn suffered by the country over the last 80 years can be traced to Federal Reserve policy. The Fed has followed a consistent policy of flooding the economy with easy money, leading to a misallocation of resources and an artificial "boom" followed by a recession or depression when the Fed-created bubble bursts.....

"In conclusion, Mr. Speaker, I urge my colleagues to stand up for working Americans by putting an end to the manipulation of the money supply which erodes Americans' standard of living, enlarges big government, and enriches well-connected elites, by cosponsoring my legislation to abolish the Federal Reserve."

-- Congressman Ron Paul; see
http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr091002b.htm


So let's hear all the neocons and McCainiacs witching about what a "moonbat" Dr. Paul is, and how unrealistic are those who continue their support for him.

As the economy continues to prove him right.

Gawd, what a "kook."

--
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