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Friday, February 15, 2008
Michael McBride :: Townhall.com Columnist
Dusting Off My Predictions of Democrat Disharmony
by Michael McBride
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There is a Perfect Storm of epochal proportions on the horizon for the Democrat Party, and there will be no escaping its impact.  The forces set in motion by seven years of Bush Derangement Syndrome and this primary season will be impossible to mitigate or deflect.  There is a Democrat train wreck coming and even Superman couldn’t stop this locomotive.

And I predicted it all back in November of 2006.

I am no palm reader or Tarot card master, no crystal ball wrangler, no political clairvoyant, but I am cognizant of historical factors that will continue to influence the primaries for the Democrats and fracture their party into small pieces, and there is little they can do about it.

Worse, the factors I relied on in 2006 to make my predictions have only moved in more ominous directions for the Dems.  The fissures have become deeper.  The race has become tighter. And with the Dem candidates polling well against McCain, the stakes have become higher.  The dogfight that will be the Dem nominating process this summer will collapse the party like a black hole on steroids.

To review, from MySandmen, November 6, 2006

“Mark your calendar…you read it here first…the 2008 Democrat National Convention is going to make the 1968 Chicago Democrat National Convention look like a play date for snobby, elite toddlers. I think Denver and NYC should abandon their bids, and that this convention should be held where the least property damage could be done…maybe…in the middle of Death Valley, California.”

Because,

Dean and the Kos Kidz. The mainstream party will never be able to meet the exceedingly high expectations from the far left. While their influence in 2004 is well documented, they reached their high-water mark with Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Dem primary earlier in the year.”

“African-Americans will call in their marker on the Dems. …Long a mainstay of support for the floundering Dems, blacks are waking up to the fact that the Dems have been stringing them along for years.”

“If no candidate can run the table…look for a bitter and acrimonious Convention, at which, both the Kos Kidz and the African-American caucuses, increase in importance, and further divide a fissured party. It won’t be pretty amongst the frustrated rank-and-file…locked out of the smoky backrooms, and being kept out of the Convention site.”

“Iraq. By far the single issue that will set the tone for the Convention. Like Vietnam, it is already causing more gyrations in the Dem party than a basket full of snakes at a limbo party. … So, in the end, Iraq will cause the Democrat Party much more consternation than it will the Republicans, because in 2008…someone, (all the candidates anyway) in the Democrat Party, will finally have to offer a specific proposal for Iraq. And that one fact will begin a fissuring of the party that will make a gamma-ray burst seem like a single firecracker during a Honolulu New Year’s Eve.”

“I am not advocating civil disruption, nor do I wish it on the potential host cities, but mark my words…the 2008 Convention will be a calamitous event that will rival 1968 in its infamy. A conflagration of events is beginning to coalesce into an unstoppable force…a force that works against a peaceful process that produces a viable Presidential candidate, and sets the stage for an explosive release of frustration that will likely be mismanaged into chaos by the DNC leadership.”

“Good luck keeping a net on this one.”

Amen.

After the November 2006 elections I followed up with the following on November 8, 2006,

“The Republicans in the House and Senate have squandered their many opportunities because of gutlessness, pandering, and 2008 Presidential aspirations of their own. But, that does not mean all is lost...over the course of the next two years, the Dems will engage themselves in a series of events that will culminate in a DNC National Convention that will make a Mike Tyson fight look like a patty cake session between a couple of snobbish playdaters. Last night's win for the Dems, only revs the engine.

More evidence...

Hillary the self-appointed frontrunner for 2008...from RCP.

"Caution has served Clinton well in the Senate. There, she has listened to the wisdom of Robert Byrd, the longest serving member, who gave her his standard nose-to-the-grindstone tutorial and beamed with avuncular pride as she took it to heart and grandstanded not. On the other hand, she has led not, either. If she is a party leader, it is on the basis of who she is and not what she has done. She has risked little. " (My emphasis)

It is doubtful that her risk aversion has gone un-noticed from within the party, and it is not likely to be rewarded with a yellow-brick road to Denver or NYC.”

Also,

“Kos and his crowd are not going to go quietly into the night. Check this comment stream from the Kos Kidz...

"No question about it. We're mandated all to heck."

"Americans last night showed they despise conservatism. And they showed they want a better way - a way that absolutely, without any doubt, includes liberalism." Continued...

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About The Author
Michael E. McBride retired as a Major from the Marine Corps and blogs at http://www.mysandmen.blogspot.com.

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Looks like this columnist is not...
Looks like this columnist is not...the only one saying this. Now, Richmond Mayor L. Douglas Wilder is warining of convention chaos.

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news/sunday.apx.-content-arti cles-RTD-2008-02-17-0302.html


It has potential...
I don't know if all the author's predictions will come true. It would be ironic in that there has been so much coverage of the fracture on the republican side...yet this is one of the only articles I have seen suggesting a fracture on the democratic side. I too see a potential. the democratic nominee is just too close to call at this time. Obama only leads by 49 delegates at this point. Clinton still has more super-delegates pledged to her. One never knows with the Clinton's... If the nomination does go to her, it's probably not the convention site were the problems will occur necessarily. While blacks only account for 13% of the US population, they account for even less voters. However, if Obama is not the DNC nominee, I could see blacks staying home in droves as well. But unfortunately (mainly for them) I don't feel most will abandon the DNC much too their detriment as a community. I would love to see this "perfect" storm, only time will tell.
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