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Thursday, July 09, 2009
Jerry Bowyer :: Townhall.com Columnist
Don't Hire
by Jerry Bowyer
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Will Congress pass Obamacare by the end of the year?

The long-awaited triumph of the silicon-based life forms over the carbon-based life forms has arrived. No, I'm not talking about the new Star Trek or Transformers movies. I'm talking about a couple of data nerd economic reports released this week. Jobs are down and micro-ship sales are up. Why?

Jobs are down because regulatory uncertainty and high political risk factors have choked off the normal hiring which occurs during the recovery phase of the economic cycle. Today's JOLTS Report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) fills this all out in previously unrevealed detail. According to the monthly JOLTS the reason that last week's unemployment rate (based on a different survey than JOLTS) rose to an awful 9.5% and the payroll growth (based on yet another different survey) showed a loss of almost half a million jobs, is that there are very few job openings. According to JOLTS lay-off events are way down. Quite rates are quite low. In fact separations of all types are down considerable since last month. So why are the ranks of the unemployed growing? Nobody is hiring. The Job Openings rate hasn't budged since February.

But the economy is showing every sign of improvement. How are we building more and selling more if we aren't hiring more? We're doing it by hiring silicon brains rather than real people. I don't think that this trend is going to change any time soon. As long as we are pressing to less flexible labor markets, with higher minimum wages and more unionization, as long as we leave employers in the dark as to exactly what kind of government-mandated health insurance liabilities they're getting themselves into when they hire a human being, as long as we leave unemployment compensation as an unfunded mandate paid by employers with every growing durations of coverage, we will continue to tip the scale away from people toward machines.

Henry Hazlitt made this point in the 1940s in his Economics in One Lesson: when government forces up employment costs, it inadvertently accelerates automation. Back when automation meant dumb machines lifting heavy loads, the scope of job loss was more limited. Now that calculations, communications and to some degree even natural language processes can be outsourced from the human race entirely, the effect is stronger.

That's why productivity did so well in the midst of a deep recession. It will continue to do well even as unemployment adds another digit this summer. It's why the tech sector is probably the best growth spot in the American equity market. The micro-chip is the way the small-business class will survive Obamanomics. Unless and until Obama moves to the center or America chooses a successor who will the best advice I can give to you is this. Don't buy man-hours; buy machines.

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About The Author

Jerry Bowyer is a radio and television talk show host.

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What Is It With Bowyer?
The author of “The Bush Boom” has a lot of nerve to still be writing columns about the economy.

First of all, jobs aren’t down because of regulatory uncertainty or high political risk factors. Jobs are down because we’re in a very serious recession. And there is no data to suggest that we are in the recovery phase of the economic cycle. In an earlier column, Bowyers denied that the economy was in recession. Now he’s claiming that the economy is showing signs of improvement. That’s ridiculous.

Bowyer suggests that unemployment is growing not because of layoffs but because of few job openings. He blatantly ignores the fact that weekly jobless claims are over half a million and the most recent Employment Situation Summary reports total job losses at 467,000.

What is it with this guy that he makes claims that are contradictory to data and draws absurd conclusions? It’s as if he’s totally disconnected from reality.

Reaching
This article is a bit disorderly and hard to pick through for it's nuggets and I think the conclusion is reaching.
If for nothing else, even if you can automate things, it isn't an instant performance.

the lawyer said with a computer he could save himself the wages of a secretary. But then, if he is going to use the computer, that takes his time. His time ought to be worth more than the hiring of a secretary. He is actually losing money because he loses more important income producing time.

The lack of hiring here is from the lack of sales, the lack of credit - not the absence or presence of people.

Actually much of the automation produces money. At one time a secretary had to use old dictaphone equipment which was actually wax cylinders that picked up a speaking voice, played it, then was shaved to make a clean space for another message. She had to type perhaps a letter on good paper and four onion skin copies with sheets of carbon paper between each. The copies printed from a black ink-powder on the paper.

If she was so unfortunate as to make a mistake she had to carefully erase the good copy on the good paper and each carbon copy. She had to stick a small scrap of paper between the carbon and onion skin to keep it from smearing. Very inneficient. A good secretary could have much better things to do.

I've had two books and several other things published, but if I had to do it the old way, - forget it. Never would I type it on a typewriter.

Medical and unemployment insurance do cost. But if an employer doesn't want to pay those, he gets illegals or goes overseas.

There are only some jobs that can be mechanized and like the computer, the wealth from it far outweighs the few jobs lost.

Our job loss is mostly government stupidy - government control.
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