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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Austin Bay :: Townhall.com Columnist
The Next Presidents Iraq War
by Austin Bay
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In a month Iraq will be the next presidents war.

From the American perspective the next presidents phase of the Iraq War will be twofold. First off, it will be a proxy war with Irans tyrannical mullahs. The second fold will be even more strategically significant: The next presidents war will measure Americas commitment to defending democracy and promoting genuine international security in the 21st century.

The Iraqi perspective differs a shade. Iraqs war will be yet another Iran-Iraq War, but one where the Iraqis will have an organizational advantage and a significant ideological edge.

Iraqs organizational advantage has two components. First and foremost Iraq engages Iran with the U.S. as an active ally -- unless the next U.S. president proves feckless and makes the inexcusably stupid mistake of denying Iraq American diplomatic and military support in a crisis.

Iraqs second organizational advantage is its increasingly capable military and more responsive government.

The Iraqis point to Operation Charge of the Knights as their first in a series of successful security operations signaling their new capabilities and confidence. Launched in late March, Charge of the Knights targeted Shia militias (like Muktada Sadrs Mahdi Army), criminal gangs, and the Special Groups that are really guerrilla bands sponsored by Iran. Follow-on operations have reduced terrorist violence and crime, which senior officials point out are closely linked.

U.S. forces are already moving to support roles. This week U.S. Marine Corps Major General John Kelly, coalition forces commander in Anbar province, said, There are still 27,000 U.S. troops in the province, but they are on overwatch."

"Overwatch" is military lingo for protecting your friends while they maneuver and fight. At the tactical level, as one soldier moves and exposes himself, another "covers" him (overwatches), prepared to fire a burst from his rifle to suppress enemy troops shooting at the exposed soldier. In Anbar Province, U.S. forces have assumed operational-level overwatch. If an Iraqi army commander finds his troops in a tough firefight, he can quickly request help from a U.S. ground unit.

At the strategic level, allied nations "cover" one another. Strategic overwatch in the U.S.-Iraq relationship includes deterring Tehrans mullahs. Continued...
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About The Author

Austin Bay Austin Bay is author of three novels. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in June 2003. He has also co-authored four non-fiction books, to include A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (with James Dunnigan, Morrow, 1996).
 
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Reply # 1
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 8:03 PM EST
Democracy in Iraq or in USA?
Austin Bay has much to say about how the USA needs to keep on helping Iraq. He has less to say about how Iraq can help the United States of America-- how the Aerican lives lost and the trillion-plus dollars spent in creating and propping up this "Islamic democracy" will ever benefit the nation and people of the USA.

In any case, it looks very much like democracy in the USA is about to render a verdict that the Iraq war was a bad idea and that we need to look for w way out as quickly as possible rather than making open-ended hundred-year commitments to stay in Iraq indefinitely come what may. (And while there's a lot I don't like about Barack Obama, I think he has generally the right idea about Iraq.)

If this happens, it will be interesting to see if Iraq war hawks are as eager to accept and respect the results of *American* democracy as they were to try to create a democracy at gunpoint in irqq.
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Reply # 2
Date: Oct 15, 2008 - 10:53 AM EST
Bay wrote
"Moreover, Iraq's Shia majority offers an alternative political vision (i.e., democracy) to Iran's--and its Hezbollah puppets'--Shia Islamist authoritarianism".

Not really--as the closest to success of combining Islam and democracy was by a Sunni, Mujibur Rehman. However, Iraq COULD get something like Mossadegh's 1951-1952 dictatorship of Iran.
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