Friday marks one month until Iowa Republicans will participate in the Hawkeye State's legendary, if not infamous, caucuses to kick off the process of picking a nominee that will culminate in Milwaukee in July at the Republican National Convention, and — even while there's little movement in the polls — there's still a lot of shuffling going on among the campaigns that haven't yet folded.
As Townhall previously reported, CNN announced it was balking existing rules and hosting an unsanctioned pre-caucus debate in Iowa (along with a subsequent pre-primary debate in New Hampshire). The RNC has since released primary candidates from the requirement that they only participate in party-sanctioned debates and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis quickly announced he would participate in the debate, followed by former Ambassador Nikki Haley.
As Townhall reported earlier:
After considerable media attention, including from Townhall and our sister site of PJ Media, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley announced on Friday morning that she would indeed commit to CNN's Iowa debate on January 10 at Drake University. The debate takes place just days before the January 15 Republican caucus, the first nominating contest of the 2024 cycle. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his campaign had also ramped up the pressure on Haley to commit.
A Friday morning press release from the Haley campaign not only made clear that Haley has accepted the debate, complete with a statement from the candidate herself, but called upon frontrunner former and potentially future President Donald Trump to finally participate.
Despite challenges from other candidates for former President Donald Trump to join them on the stage, his decision to skip all the RNC-organized debates so far this cycle — amid taunting from his fellow Republican candidates — suggests he won't be there. It remains to be seen whether former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will meet CNN's criteria to participate.
The fifth debate is in Des Moines—five days before the Iowa caucuses.
— Nikki Haley (@NikkiHaley) December 15, 2023
Donald Trump should show up. pic.twitter.com/Jpp1oH3lph
If Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are going to continue to spend millions against me on television with false attacks, they should at least have the courage to meet on the debate stage.
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 15, 2023
Now that Nikki Haley has been shamed into coming to the CNN debate, it's time for Donald Trump… https://t.co/n1xUJpNIXv
Whether Trump jumps into a debate in the 11th hour before early state Republicans begin the process of selecting their nominee and regardless of how many of the non-Trump candidates qualify, it seems unlikely a final debate would alter the field barring any disastrous gaffes. And, as much fun as a CNN-moderated cage match between just DeSantis and Haley would be, the polls — whatever stock one puts in them — aren't likely to move.
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In Iowa, DeSantis was endorsed by Governor Kim Reynolds. In New Hampshire, Haley was endorsed by Governor Chris Sununu. How much of an impact those endorsements may have remains to be seen.
Nationally, the RealClearPolitics polling average currently has Trump in first place by 47.7 percent with 60.3 percent support, followed by DeSantis at 12.6 percent, Haley's 12.1 percent, Ramaswamy's 4.9 percent, and Christie's 2.9 percent. Asa Hutchinson now has 0.9 percent.
In Iowa, the RCP average is slightly closer, though Trump is still running away in the polls. The former president is in first place by a spread of 30.7 percent with 50.0 percent support, followed by DeSantis at 19.3 percent and Haley at 16.7 percent. Ramaswamy is in fourth place with 5.7 percent while Christie is at 4.0 percent and Hutchinson is at 1.0 percent.
Sure, polls can and certainly have been wrong before. But can they be 30- to 47-points wrong? We'll find out in a month.
