Tipsheet

There Are Some Serious Problems With These Polls Right Now

Scott Morefield
Scott Morefield  |  June 18, 2023 3:30 PM

There's no doubt that former President Donald Trump is leading in GOP primary polling. He's been running for months, one felony indictment after another keeps drawing attention and making him a martyr, and he's running against about 98 other candidates, none of whom are former presidents with a penchant for sucking all the air out of every room they enter.

In a steady second sits Trump's primary challenger, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. However, recent polling trumpeted by the Trump camp shows the former president's lead over his main competition growing, as well as a competitive general election race between Trump and Biden. The trumpeting seems aimed to present an air of inevitability like this is some sort of coronation instead of a contest. The goal, presumably, seems to be to get everyone to 'rally around Trump' and ignore everyone else based on the belief that he will beat DeSantis and that he can beat Biden.

Consider Harvard Harris, run by former Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn. Recent results from this polling outfit show Trump with seemingly insurmountable leads in the GOP primary. They also show the former president competitive in a general election race.

But how much of that is real? Might there be core issues with polls that, say, claim that Biden is only at 53% with black voters and Trump is winning women and GenZ?


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Look under the hood, and other polls, especially ones attempting to predict the general election, display similar weirdness:

When it comes to polling, especially this early in a presidential election, always look at the crosstabs and demographic sampling and compare those with complex data from actual past elections. For example, if no Republican has won the women's vote in decades, do you really think Donald Trump is going to be the one to break the cycle? 


Is Trump's lead over DeSantis in GOP primary polling insurmountable? Is the former president actually competitive against Biden in a general election race? Considering the past history and basic common sense, the answer to both questions is a likely 'no.' All of us should take all of this polling with a massive, massive grain of salt.