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Tipsheet

Poll Shows Devastating Implications For Down-Ballot Republicans in a Trump-Biden Rematch

AP Photo, File

Results of a new poll show potentially devastating implications for the Republican Party as a whole if former President Donald Trump faces off in a rematch against President Joe Biden in the 2024 general election.

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Released Wednesday by WPA Intelligence and shared with TownHall, the poll shows Democrats leading Republicans 47 to 42 percent in the generic congressional ballot with Trump at the head, a five-point advantage. Without Trump, however, the ballot is tied at 44 percent.

An analysis released by WPA Intelligence predicts Republicans "would almost certainly lose the House" with Trump on the ballot.

In 2022, Republicans retook the House with a net gain of 10 seats and a 2.8-point advantage over Democrats when tallying the votes for House candidates across the country. With Democrats having a +5 lead in the Congressional ballot and Trump at the top of the ticket, Republicans would almost certainly lose the House.

Further, Trump, who lost nationally to Biden by nearly five points in 2020, trails the president in this poll by 7 points in the national popular vote. 

Our initial 2024 head-to-head ballot finds that former President Trump has lost considerable ground to President Biden since losing to him by 4.5 points in 2020. Biden now leads Trump by 7 points, including a 14-point (44% to 30%) lead among Independents. To put this in context: Trump won Independents by 1 point in 2016 and then lost them by 9 in 2020, according to Pew Research.

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The poll, which surveyed 1,571 registered voters nationally between May 10 and May 13 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent with a 95 percent confidence level, also showed 59 percent of Americans and nearly two-thirds of independents support charging Trump criminally. In a hypothetical scenario where Trump is charged criminally, the gap widens from 7 percent to 10 percent.

"Joe Biden is vulnerable and unpopular, but he would be spared a much-needed one-way trip to Delaware if Republicans nominate Donald Trump in 2024," wrote WPA's Amanda Iovino. "As our data clearly show, Trump would enter the 2024 race considerably weaker than where he stood on Election Day in 2020. Contrary to what one may hear on Truth Social, Trump’s indictment, in either the pending Georgia or federal cases, would energize Democrats, not Republicans, potentially producing the worst loss for a GOP presidential candidate in 60 years. In the process, Republicans would lose control of the House and forego pick-up opportunities in the Senate."

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