In a potential 2026 showdown, Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY) is making waves, trailing Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul (NY) by less than ten points, according to recent polling. The close margin highlights the growing dissatisfaction with Hochul’s leadership in New York, as more voters seek an alternative to the status quo. Stefanik, a staunch advocate for conservative values, has already proven herself a formidable force in the House, and her strong position in this early head-to-head race signals that the Big Apple could be ready for a change. If these trends continue, it’s clear that Stefanik could mount a serious challenge to Hochul’s grip on the governorship.
According to a new poll conducted by GrayHouse, Stefanik is lagging behind Hochul by just six points (40-46 percent), suggesting the Republican would be the clear front-runner to take on Hochul in a general election. While Stefanik has not officially announced a run for governor, she has received the support of 44 percent of New York Republicans compared to just seven percent for lower Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman got only five percent of the support.
Stefanik holds a net favorable rating of +47 among Republicans, with just nine percent of the party having an unfavorable opinion of her. In contrast, two-thirds of Republicans did not know who Lawler was.
“Hochul is heading into the 2026 cycle extremely vulnerable,” Landon Wall, the survey’s pollster, told the Washington Reporter. “With no high-profile Senate race, Trump off the ballot, and the governor’s race at the top of the ticket, voter enthusiasm will decide everything. Hochul’s weak standing with voters, particularly the erosion of support within her own party, could create the perfect storm for the right Republican candidate to make a serious run at governor.”
President Donald Trump has already approved of her, saying that “Congresswoman Elise Stefanik is GREAT!!!” should she decide to run for New York governor.
In the last election, in 2022, Hochul defeated Lee Zeldin, the current U.S. Secretary of the Environmental Protection Agency, by just six points, 53 to 47 percent.
“Across all tested matchups, Hochul fails to reach 47% support—a warning sign for an incumbent in a blue state,” Wall said.
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