The mainstream media and pollsters have been all too happy to tout polls where Vice President Kamala Harris has a lead over former and potentially future President Donald Trump. Harris has had something of a honeymoon period, especially since she's someone other than President Joe Biden, who dropped out of the race in a letter shared to his X account and endorsed her not long after. Harris has also had the benefit of avoiding the media and a refusal to hold a press conference. But, recent polls and commentary show that the tide may be turning.
On Thursday, Cygnal released the poll they had been previewing throughout this week, including in statements for Townhall earlier in the week when warning about issues with other polls.
According to the national poll, Harris leads Trump 47.6-47.0 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The race is even closer when third-party candidates are added. Trump enjoys 44.4 percent support, while Harris has 44.2 percent support, and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr is at 4.9 percent.
New national poll by @cygnal
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 15, 2024
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 47%
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🟦 Harris: 44%
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 2%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 47%
🟦 DEM: 46%
——
Crosstabs (two-way)
• Swing voter: Harris 44-34%
• Democrats: Harris 94-4%
• Republicans: Trump 92-5%
•… pic.twitter.com/SmuXt4kJoP
A statement from Chris Lane, the pollster and director of client strategy speaks to the hype.
"After one of the wildest six weeks of American politics, we find ourselves back at more of a stasis," he said. "The idea that Kamala Harris came into this race and Independents and moderates stumbled over each other to support her is simply not the case. The truth is traditional Democrat voters simply started to indicate they are going to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate, a not so shocking revelation. Biden had such a low floor that it was hard to believe that could last. At the same time, Harris faces challenges solidifying her support with 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters saying they do not consider themselves part of her base and a whopping 71 percent of likely voters perceiving Harris as ‘liberal’ versus only 15 percent who view her as ‘moderate’. That label will push away Independent voters while Trump maintains the edge on the issues voters care about most – the economy, cost of living, and illegal immigration."
And, when it comes to those top issues for voters that Lane referenced, Trump indeed has an edge.
"Inflation and economy" is the top priority for 30.4 percent of voters, while "illegal immigration" comes in at 19.1 percent and "threats to democracy" comes in at 16.9 percent. Abortion is a distant fourth place, with 6.9 percent saying it's their top priority.
Voters are also asked about eight different issues and which candidate they'd trust more. Trump leads on four of the eight issues.
On "Economy and jobs," 49.3 percent say they'd "definitely" (42.6 percent) or "probably" (6.7 percent) trust Trump most, as opposed to the 43.8 percent who say they'd "definitely" (33.7 percent) or "probably" (10.1 percent) trust Harris most.
On "Inflation and cost of living," 48.6 percent say they'd "definitely" (42 percent) or "probably" (6.6 percent) trust Trump most, compared to the 42.2 percent who say they'd "definitely" (30.7 percent) or "probably" (11.5 percent) trust Harris most.
Trump's best issue and one of the biggest splits between the candidates is on "Illegal immigration and border security." While 52.6 percent say they'd "definitely" (46 percent) or "probably" (6.6 percent) trust Trump most, just 37.7 percent said they'd "definitely" (27.7 percent) or "probably" (10 percent) trust Harris most. Even 11 percent of Democrats and 13 percent of Biden voters from 2020 say they'd trust Trump most on this issue.
Inflation and immigration issues are the worst for Harris, which is especially problematic as she's claimed she'll work on lowering the prices and the border if elected. Of course, as the sitting vice president, Harris shouldn't have to wait that long to take action.
Trump also has a lead on "Crime and public safety," as 47.9 percent say they'd "definitely" (40.5 percent) or "probably" (7.4 percent) trust him most, while 43.7 percent say they'd "definitely" (33.4 percent) or "probably" (10.3 percent) trust Harris most.
Harris' biggest lead over Trump is on "Abortion and reproductive issues," where 51.5 percent of voters say they'd "definitely" (44.9 percent) or "probably" (6.6 percent) trust her most compared to the 36.6 percent who say they'd "definitely" (27.7 percent) or "probably" (8.9 percent) trust Trump most.
Although "Threats to democracy" is the top priority for Democratic respondents (27 percent), Harris' lead on the democracy isn't that pronounced. While 47.2 percent say they'd "definitely" (40.8 percent) or "probably" (6.4 percent) trust Harris most on the issue, 43 percent say they'd "definitely" (36 percent) or "probably" (7 percent) trust Trump most.
And, for all this talk about how Harris has seen a favorable boost, Trump has as well. He's at his highest numbers "in recent memory," in fact.
Forty-seven percent of voters have a favorable view of Harris, while 50.3 percent have an unfavorable view. Similarly, 45.8 percent of voters have a favorable view of Trump, while 51.7 percent have an unfavorable view.
The poll's "Insights & Analysis" section spoke to this:
- Both Harris and Trump’s images have improved in the aftermath of some of the most tumultuous weeks of politics in living memory.
- Trump’s image is now 52% unfavorable, 46% favorable – a net movement of +2. At -6 net favorability, this is the most net favorable Trump has been viewed in recent memory.
- Harris’ image has improved considerably driven by the non-stop favorable media coverage as her net favorability has gone from -23 to -8 to -3 (50% unfavorable, 47% favorable), a net swing of 20 points since the first week of July.
- Keep in mind that Harris’ has benefitted from wall-to-wall positive coverage from the mainstream media and a huge Super PAC advertising, so this is likely her high water mark in regard to voters’ perceptions of her.
The poll's last question also asked if voters believed "the United States as a whole would be better off or worse off if its policies were more like California," where Harris is from. It wasn't even close, given that 52.4 percent said the U.S. would be "worse off" and just 27.5 percent said "better off."
The only demographics where a plurality or majority said the U.S. would be "better off" included 40 percent of urban respondents, 55 percent of Democrats, and 45 percent of Biden 2020 voters.
The poll was conducted August 6-8 with 1,500 likely general election voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.53 percentage points.
Brent Buchanan, the president at Cygnal, also spoke with The Washington Post about the poll's release. When describing the poll's "takeaway," he noted the importance of "historical context," and why that speaks to bad news for Harris:
I think one of the most important things to consider is historical context. And too often we look back a month or three or six months, and we don’t look back two, four, six or eight years ago and say, ‘What was the same about the environment? What was different?’ History matters. Where was this race four years ago at this point, Biden-Trump? Biden was up by nine or 10 points, and he only ended up winning by five. So, [Vice President Kamala Harris] really has to be at six, seven plus in the national polls to be winning this.
If I’m the Harris campaign and I’m only up one, two or three points, that is actually a challenging place. And that’s not the narrative that I see, which I get it because you go from Trump up four to Kamala up one or two — that is a massive swing. You don’t normally see massive swings in presidential polling. It could go back to a legitimate stasis that still gives the edge to Trump.
There's even a poll showing Trump with an edge, in this case the Fox News poll released on Wednesday, where Trump leads nationally by 50-49 percent, though that is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points with 1,105 registered voters.
The economy is once more the top issue, with 38 percent saying so.
Of the 11 issues voters were asked about and which candidate they trust, Trump leads on six of them, with particularly significant leads on border security (+19) and immigration" 14 percent). He also has a lead of of +7 on foreign policy, +6 on the economy, +5 on crime, and +3 on guns.
Frank Luntz warned that Harris polling behind Biden from 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Kamala Harris is currently polling behind where Joe Biden was in 2020 and Hillary Clinton was in 2016. https://t.co/NpWXSzIOyW
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) August 15, 2024
Although RealClearPolling does not include Cygnal in their averages, they do include the Fox News poll, and they show Harris only up +1.0 over Trump, with 47.9 percent support to Trump's 46.9 percent.
Thursday night's episode of "The Tony Kinnett Cast" also summed the issue up pretty well, with host Tony Kinnett pointing out that, "in the last three weeks of this sugar high of this election, Kamala's surged up to just a 1 point lead nationally," referencing RCP. He also reminded that the key swing states are "Toss-Up" races, and that there are polls where Trump leads by 1 point, and Harris leads by 1 point.
"That's not good, that's not good for the Kamala Harris campaign," Kinnett made clear. "That's very very bad, because Republicans do not get that close in national polls. They don't. And it's starting to make things very, very tense," as he also noted even leftist commentators have noticed Harris "is directly avoiding the media," even CNN's Jim Acosta.
🚨LIVE: “Political Chicken” - The Tony Kinnett Cast https://t.co/0KjrZQ78Oi
— The Daily Signal (@DailySignal) August 15, 2024
