Now that Democrats have Vice President Kamala Harris as their presumptive nominee for president, there's plenty of supposed excitement and enthusiasm from the base. The mainstream media has certainly done their part by trying to hide or even lie about her far-left record, and she hasn't even had to answer to anything through press conferences. Especially with President Joe Biden pretty much being MIA even before he dropped out of the presidential race on July 21, in that context, can we really trust polls showing Harris ahead?
On Sunday, CBS News/YouGov released a poll showing Harris tied with former and potentially future President Donald Trump in the battleground states, at 50 percent. She has a slight lead nationally, however, at 50-49 percent. The battleground states included Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The results in the battleground states among likely voters look questionable, especially regarding how Trump is only up +3 in Georgia and North Carolina, 50-47 percent against Harris. This poll also shows Harris up +2 in Nevada, 50-48 percent, which has been one of Trump's best states, at least when he was running against Biden.
The result was something CBS News Poll highlighted, pointing out how Biden never led Trump in such polls.
Here's our newest - as always, it's not just about the "horserace" number, it's about the why: Harris shifts the race b/c Dems & key groups more engaged, likely to vote, including women who think her policies would favor their interests more https://t.co/k3CljQ0Cnb
— Anthony Salvanto (@SalvantoCBS) August 4, 2024
*New*
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 4, 2024
Updated battleground state-level estimates point to very close race
From the CBS News statistical model, which incorporates polling, voter files, and U.S. Census data
Methodology here, along with full race ratings and state-level estimates: https://t.co/eB6E62PuxQ pic.twitter.com/CnxNIqv1o1
A headline from CBS News highlighted how Democrats are excited when it comes to their new presumptive nominee. "Boosts in Democratic excitement help Harris reset the race against Trump — CBS News poll," it read.
As that piece began by mentioning:
Boosted by Democrats, younger and Black voters becoming more engaged and likely to vote, and by women decidedly thinking she'd favor their interests more, Vice President Kamala Harris has reset the 2024 presidential race.
She has a 1-point edge nationally — something President Biden never had (he was down by 5 points when he left the race) — and Harris and former President Donald Trump are tied across the collective battleground states.
For all of this talk about black voters being "becoming more engaged and likely to vote," it's worth noting that buried in the methodology section at the end of the write-up is a note about how such respondents are oversampled.
While the poll from July 18 showed that 81 percent of registered voters who are Democrats will "definitely" vote, that number is now at 85 percent. Republicans, meanwhile, saw a slight decrease. While 90 percent of registered voters who are Republicans said they'll "definitely" vote, that number is now at 88 percent.
The % of Dems who say they'll definitely vote has risen to its highest point this year – narrowing the partisan turnout gap we've seen throughout the campaign.
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 4, 2024
And a much higher % of Black voters say they'll definitely vote, compared to July when Biden was the nominee.… pic.twitter.com/79nVH42XZx
With leaners included, Republicans look to be supporting Trump about the same amount that Democrats are supporting Harris, at 97 percent and 96 percent, respectively.
Now is not the time to get complacent, but rather to highlight the records involved. GovTrack may have deleted the web page showing as much, but that doesn't change how Harris was the most liberal senator in 2019, one of the least bipartisan ones, and one of the ones most frequently absent.
The polling tellingly reveals that a plurality of overall voters (43 percent), Democrats (48 percent), and Independents (43 percent), as well as most other demographics, say they know "some" about Harris. This is definitely an opportunity for Republicans and the Trump-Vance campaign. That 15 percent of overall voters consider her to be "moderate" is also something to correct.
"Voters do see her as somewhat or very liberal. (The more conservative one is, the more likely they are to view her as very liberal.) Then again, voters see Trump as very or somewhat conservative — and so that choice is more polarized than the electorate as a whole," the poll's write-up highlighted.
Under a subheading of "Enthusiasm and core Democratic groups," the poll's write-up speaks further to enthusiasm as well:
Most Democratic voters, and nearly half of voters overall, say that Harris as the Democratic nominee makes them feel more motivated to vote. (There is some countering effect, too: about a third of Trump voters are also more motivated to vote now that Harris is the nominee.)
It's not just that Democrats are more excited, but also on a number of candidate qualities they feel they've gotten a candidate that can match up more closely with Trump.
Harris has an advantage over Trump on being seen as having the mental and cognitive health to serve, which was a critical deficit for Mr. Biden.
Across the wider set of voters, she's ahead of Trump on being energetic and focused (two qualities Mr. Biden trailed Trump badly on). She's even with Trump on perceived competence, and closer than Mr. Biden was on being tough and effective.
For all of these attributes supposedly going in Harris' favor, 56 percent say they would not describe her as "effective," and 52 percent say they would not describe her as "tough." In contrast, 54 percent would describe Trump as "effective," while 66 percent say they would describe him as "tough."
Since the poll was conducted and released, issues about the economy have become that much more prevalent.
A plurality of voters, at 33 percent, say the economy is "very bad." A plurality of voters, at 35 percent, also similarly say that things are going "very badly" when asked how they think "generally speaking" how do they feel "things in America today are going[?]"
The poll also showed that 26 percent of voters each say they expect the economy next year to be "growing, but not booming" or "holding steady." Twenty-three percent expect the economy to be "in recession."
On Friday, the jobs report for July was released, showing there were far fewer jobs than expected, with unemployment rising to 4.3 percent. The stock market is also burning.
A plurality of voters, at 44 percent, believe they will be "financially worse off" if Harris wins, while 31 percent say her policies will make their situation will "stay about the same," and just 25 percent say they will be "financially better off."
A plurality of voters, 45 percent, however, believe that they will be "financially better off" under Trump's policies if he wins.
Another top issue for voters is the border crisis. A majority of voters, 52 percent, believe that Harris' policies will "increase the number of migrants trying to cross the border." A plurality of her fellow Democrats, at 47 percent, believe her policies "won't have an effect."
In stark contrast, 72 percent of overall voters believe that Trump's policies will "decrease the number of migrants trying to cross the border," with a majority of every single demographic polled saying so. Even 53 percent of Democrats believe that will be the case.
"But to Trump's advantage, some critical things have not changed: he keeps his sizable lead on voters saying they'll be financially better off with him and that his policies would decrease migrants at the border," the poll's write-up highlights, which is indeed a signficant advantage that Trump still enjoys.
But to Trump's advantage some critical things have not changed: he keeps his sizable lead on voters saying they’ll be financially better off with him, and that his policies would decrease migrants at the border. https://t.co/QhtbC8yPEj pic.twitter.com/CDrspSzteF
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) August 4, 2024
The poll was conducted with 3,102 registered voters from July 30-August 2 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. The job report was released on the last day that the poll was conducted.
Although he emphasized the enthusiasm of voters for Harris, Anthony Salvanto, the executive director of elections and surveys, also spoke to such benefits for Trump while appearing on Sunday's episode of "Face the Nation."
Salvanto highlighted how "some things in this race have not changed," specifically in that "the idea that you would be better off financially if Trump were elected, Trump still has a big advantage over now Kamala Harris on that. And the idea that his policies would slow or decrease the number of migrants trying to cross the border, that, he still has an edge on."
CBS POLL:
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) August 4, 2024
— Nearly half of voters say President Trump's policies will make them "financially better off" (compared to just a quarter for Kamala)
— Three-quarters say illegal border crossings will go down if President Trump wins (just 18% say they'll go down if Kamala wins) pic.twitter.com/eKMeopuHNw
On Sunday, when the poll came out, the Trump-Vance campaign sent out a statement from Brian Hughes, senior advisor.
"The Fake News Media continue to help dangerously liberal Kamala hide her record of economic failure and soft-on crime policies. Now, as this analysis shows they'll even put a finger on the scale of polling to inflate results for her. This analysis is why the American people are seeing through it and will not allow this national gaslighting campaign to win. Despite this manipulated result, from CBS/YouGov it's worth noting that in July and August of 2020, their data showed Biden leading by 10 nationally, reflecting a net positive movement of almost +10 to President Trump this election cycle," he noted in a statement about the poll.
