The warning signs that President Joe Biden should have dropped out of the 2024 presidential race have been there for some time, though the calls for him to do so really began picking up after the president debated former and potentially future President Donald Trump less than a month ago. Depending on what polls you looked at, Biden's fellow Democrats appeared mixed or uncertain, though other polls also showed an increasing amount of Democrats wanting him to step aside. One consistent theme looked to certainly be that voters were concerned with Biden's age and mental capabilities. Now that Biden has actually dropped out, though, what do they think?
As we covered last Friday, just days before Biden's exit became official, YouGov America had a series of polls showing what looked to be mixed feelings about Biden dropping out. Meanwhile, polls from NBC News and AP-NORC showed majorities of Democrats wanting Biden to withdraw.
On Sunday, after Biden's announcement was made, YouGov conducted a poll of 2,048 U.S. adults asking them whether or not they approved of the president dropping out of the race. A majority of overall respondents approve, including 49 percent who say they do so "strongly," and 22 percent who "somewhat approve." Among Democrats, 39 percent say they "strongly approve" of the move, while 31 percent say they "somewhat approve."
71% of Americans either strongly or somewhat approve of Biden's withdrawal, including 70% of Democrats, 68% of Independents, and 76% of Republicans
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
17% of Americans disapprove
—July 21 poll of 2,048 US adults, +/-3%https://t.co/pgXrHv5gyX pic.twitter.com/2gQWi45GIo
Does such a move help the Democrats and Vice President Kamala Harris, though, whom Biden endorsed not long after his letter was put out? Not quite.
In response to another question, a plurality of Democrats, at 37 percent, appear confident that Biden dropping out means "it makes Donald Trump less likely to win." A plurality of overall respondents, however, at 36 percent, feel otherwise, as they say "it makes Donald Trump more likely to win." Republicans seem to be particularly confident, as 53 percent believe it helps Trump's chances.
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While overall respondents are more split on whether or not Harris should replace Biden as the nominee, a majority of Democrats are unified behind her. Still, one might expect the numbers in her favor to be higher.
When asked in another question who Democrats should nominate, 60 percent of Democratic respondents said Harris, while 21 percent said "someone else" and 19 percent were "unsure."
Perhaps even more telling is that a plurality of the coveted Independents, a demographic Harris will no doubt have to appeal to, want someone else, with 36 percent saying so.
Following the decision to suspend his campaign, Joe Biden has endorsed Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 presidential election.
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
Who should Democrats nominate as their new candidate for president? 🤔
SUPPORT FOR KAMALA HARRIS AS NOMINEE (%)
📊 U.S. adults -… pic.twitter.com/Bt5EQlKRKu
When respondents in a separate poll from Monday, which surveyed 1,841 U.S. adults, were asked what's more likely, a plurality of overall respondents (37 percent), Democrats (48 percent), and (35 percent) Independents nevertheless said they believe it's most likely that "no one challenges Kamala Harris for the nomination." A plurality of Republicans, at 37 percent, believe it's more likely that "other Democrats challenge Kamala Harris for the nomination."
Still another poll from Monday, this one with 2,532 U.S. adult citizens surveyed, found that 44 percent of overall respondents, a plurality, believe it is "very likely" that Harris will be the Democratic Party's nominee this year. Sixty-one percent of Democrats believe so, though again, one would think that number might be higher if they were truly confident in her as a candidate.
What do Americans think is most likely to happen? 💭
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
➡️ 37% of Americans say they think it’s more likely that no one will challenge Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination.
➡️ 33% of Americans say they think other Democrats will challenge Harris for the nomination.… pic.twitter.com/8EZDuX39YA
% who think it is very or somewhat likely that Kamala Harris will be this year’s Democratic nominee
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
U.S. adults: 72%
Democrats: 88%
Independents: 63%
Republicans: 66%
—July 22 poll of 2,532 U.S. adults, +/-2%https://t.co/cHQvlNxwv5 pic.twitter.com/frPJYwEsGc
Perhaps worst of all, though, is that that poll also asked respondents how Harris compares to previous Democratic nominees.
A plurality of overall respondents, at 28 percent, said she is "much less qualified to be president," which 61 percent of Republicans and 23 percent of Independents also said. That 23 percent figure is not too far off from the 24 percent of Independents who said she's "about as qualified to be president."
% who think that compared to previous Democratic nominees, Kamala Harris would be more / less qualified to be president
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
U.S. adults: 30% / 37%
Democrats: 54% / 9%
Independents: 22% / 34%
Republicans: 12% / 71%
—July 22 poll of 2,532 U.S. adults, +/-2%https://t.co/pl0wSxl073 pic.twitter.com/lz1aG8IhOC
Even among her fellow Democrats, a plurality, at 30 percent, believe she's "about as qualified." Even with the 28 percent who say she's "much more qualified" and 26 percent who say she's "somewhat more qualified," that still leaves just a small majority of Democrats who believe she's more qualified.
One silver lining for Democrats could perhaps be that poll from Monday with 2,532 U.S. citizens, which showed that with Biden stepping aside, 45 percent of Democrats are now "more enthusiastic to vote in the election." Just 31 percent of Republicans say so, while 55 percent of them say they are "neither more nor less enthusiastic to vote." No matter who Trump faces in November, Republicans can't afford to get cocky.
% who say Joe Biden’s decision to step aside makes them more / less enthusiastic to vote in the election
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) July 22, 2024
U.S. adults: 34% / 8%
Democrats: 45% / 11%
Independents: 27% / 6%
Republicans: 31% / 7%
—July 22 poll of 2,532 U.S. adults, +/-2%https://t.co/LcoMzxgW0y pic.twitter.com/GhcVpd4NJs
YouGov conducted another poll from July 19-21, though, with 1,123 U.S. adult citizens, and the enthusiasm gap for Harris wasn't much better overall, and even slightly worse, though within the 3.7 percentage points margin of error, among fellow Democrats.
In a matchup between Trump and Biden, 62 percent of respondents, including 72 percent of Democrats, said they "definitely will vote." With Harris replacing Biden, making for a matchup between Trump and Harris, 63 percent of respondents, including 71 percent of Democrats, said they "definitely will vote."
That poll also showed that between Trump and Biden, a plurality, at 34 percent, believed Trump would "definitely" be more likely to be elected, while 36 percent said so in a matchup between him and Harris.
Still another YouGov poll, this one from Sunday which included 2,665 U.S. adult citizens, showed even worse news for Democrats in a Trump-Harris matchup. When asked, "regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the 2024 presidential election if these were the candidates," 50 percent of all respondents said Trump, while 31 percent said Harris and 19 percent were unsure. Fifty percent of Independents also said Trump, though they were even less confident in Harris, as just 22 percent of them think she would win, while 29 percent were unsure.
While 61 percent of Harris' fellow Democrats in that poll believe Harris would be the winner, Trump has much more confidence from his fellow Republicans, in that 88 percent said he would win.
Time will tell if Republicans let cockiness and/or complacency get in the way. The election is still a little more than three months away, and there are plenty of hurdles Harris, assuming she's even the nominee, will have to overcome.
