We're now less than 12 hours away from when President Joe Biden and former and potentially future President Donald Trump will participate in the hotly anticipated CNN debate.There's been plenty of chatter about the stakes and expectations involved, as well as which candidate has to do what in order to win the debate. On Wednesday, The Economist/YouGov America released their poll that is put out every week or so, and this time they included a question on who respondents believe will win the debate. It's not just good for Trump, it's also bad for Biden.
A plurality of voters, at 42 percent believe Trump will do better or win the debate, while 34 percent say so about Biden, and 23 percent say they don't know. The numbers are even worse for Biden among overall respondents. Not only does Trump retain his 40 percent plurality support when it comes to who Americans expect to do better or win, but just as many say Biden as they don't know, 30 percent each.
As looks to be a trend throughout the poll, Trump performs better with his fellow Republicans than Biden does with his fellow Democrats. Eighty-seven percent of Trump voters believe he will do better or win, while 76 percent of Biden voters say so about their candidate, and 23 percent say they don't know.
When it comes to Independents, though, close to a majority, at 49 percent, say they don't know who they expect to do better at/win the debate. They are twice as likely to believe Trump than Biden will, 34-17 percent.
When it comes to other findings about the debate, 65 percent of registered voters say they "definitely will" (35 percent) or "probably will" (30 percent) watch the debate. More Trump voters, at 40 percent, say they "definitely will" watch the debate than the 37 percent of Biden voters who say the same.
The poll shows that an overwhelming amount of voters, at 70 percent, say it is "not at all likely" that the debate will change their minds on who they plan to vote for. This is to be expected, as few voters overall remain undecided, and the debates are a way for each candidate to show off. Perhaps it's redemption for Trump when it comes to that first debate of the 2020 cycle that even he acknowledged was not his best.
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Trump has better numbers here in voters who are more sure in their decision, with 78 percent saying it is "not at all likely" the debate will change their mind, compared to the 73 percent of Biden voters who say so.
Close to midway through Wednesday night's episode of "The Tony Kinnett Cast," host Tony Kinnett emphasized such a point of how the debates will likely change very few people's minds when going over his debate predictions, especially due to the bias of the CNN moderators. He also offered "we're going to see a little bit of all sides of the candidates."
A point that Kinnett "guaranteed" is that "media outlets on the left and the right, they're going to cherry pick those scenes they do and don't like, and then they're going to announce that they won the debate," a move that both campaigns will also engage in.
A reason the debate has any "fanfare," Kinnett offered, is to see if Trump can counteract the factors working against him. "It's more of an expectation of entertainment, than it is a decision point for this election," he said, with people tuning in for "a circus."
LIVE: “Democrats' Coalition Hangs by a Thread” - TKC 6/26/24 https://t.co/OCn0RfEsDa
— 93 WIBC Indianapolis (@93wibc) June 26, 2024
Another YouGov poll from June 13-17 of registered voters compared the candidates' debate styles and found that Biden enjoys an edge in some areas, such as close to a majority of voters believe he will be "better at staying calm under pressure" (48-31) and a plurality say he'll be "more knowledgeable on policy issues" (43-38).
More voters say Trump will be "a better debater," though (43-36 percent). Perhaps most telling of all is that a majority of voters believe Biden is "more likely to fumble over his words," by 58-21 percent.
The first 2024 presidential debate is Thursday. How do Americans predict Joe Biden and Donald Trump will debate?https://t.co/2Rztv7I64K pic.twitter.com/jVaBPx2q8o
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) June 26, 2024
On Thursday morning, Cygnal's Brent Buchanan also released his takes on the debate, pointing out how "Biden has the high bar." Another point, though, mentioned "Let's face it, politics is entertainment now," citing an article from The Daily Beast on how "America Braces for a Car-Crash Debate."
When it comes to the overall state of the race, Trump and Biden are tied in a five-way race in The Economist/YouGov America poll, with 42 percent support each, though 42 percent of voters believe Trump will win the election compared to just 37 percent who say so about Biden.
Among overall respondents, those numbers are 41-32 percent in favor of Trump.
NEW: Economist/YouGov Poll, June 23-25
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) June 26, 2024
Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election if Joe Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate?
Trump: 41%
Biden: 32%https://t.co/pk6U2u6z8z pic.twitter.com/zal5k4gYih
The poll was conducted June 23-25, with 1,599 respondents for which there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent adjusted for weighting. Of the 1,406 registered voters there was a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.
With Trump's conviction of 34 felonies in the hushmoney "trial" four weeks ago today, the polls have mostly reflected that it still remains a close and competitive race, with Biden not earning enough of a boost to really help him. With the recent polls, actually, as Guy highlighted earlier this morning, the stakes are even higher for Biden with these debates. Trump still leads in the battleground states for instance, and we may even see other states like Virginia and Minnesota act as battlegrounds this time around. We'll see if this first, rather early debate has the same effect as more polls come out from here.
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