We just did a pre-debate polling post yesterday, and I didn't anticipate doing another one this week, but a few things have happened. Yesterday afternoon, blue-tinted (and often unreliable) Quinnipiac put out a national survey showing Trump surging into the lead. In a head-to-head, Trump's advantage was four points among registered voters, and six points in a five-candidate field. This represented a dramatic swing in the Republican's direction since the May Q-poll. But, again, Quinnipiac doesn't have a strong track record, so those results raised an eyebrow slightly, but nothing more. A Marquette Law poll, considered the best outfit in Wisconsin, also released pre-debate numbers showing the race within two points. In a direct match-up, Biden slightly leads; in the wider field, Trump edges in front.
Neither of these polls merited a new post, I thought, but then the New York Times/Siena poll arrived late Wednesday. This pollster is rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight, and the Times' branding always garners serious attention on the Left. And you can bet that Times fans are reeling over these results:
NEW national NYT/Siena poll:
— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) June 26, 2024
Trump 48
Biden 44
That’s likely voters. Among registered voters overall, Trump is +6. With a wider field, Trump is +3. https://t.co/cGleUdLBGs
In the cross tabs, Trump is winning white voters by double digits, is within single digits among women, is pulling nearly 40 percent among Hispanics, and is attracting roughly one in four black voters. That latter number in particular would be disastrous for the Democrats. Trump is peeling off more 2020 Biden voters than Biden is winning over Trump supporters from last time. Crucially, Trump leads by nearly 20 points among people who didn't participate in the 2020 election. If a decent number of them do show up this time around, Trump will be in a very good position to win. If not -- and these are, by definition, unreliable voters -- the polling may not be predictive. This goes back to a dynamic I've been flogging for months. More findings from the Times poll:
The national survey on the eve of the first presidential debate shows that voters have broad distaste for both candidates but that Mr. Trump has so far better consolidated the support of his own party. Only 72 percent of voters who said they cast a ballot for Mr. Biden four years ago say they approve of the job he is doing as president. And voters overall say they now trust Mr. Trump more on the issues that matter most to them...The poll shows that a 55 percent majority of voters — as well as 58 percent of independents and 72 percent of undecided voters — believe Mr. Trump has committed serious crimes. Notably, 18 percent of voters who said they were voting for Mr. Trump said he had committed serious federal crimes. At the same time, 53 percent of voters — including 21 percent of Mr. Biden’s supporters — do not believe Mr. Trump should go to prison as a result of his conviction in the New York case...
A majority of respondents believe Trump committed a serious crime, as it pertains to his felony convictions in New York. I believe he committed no crime at all, for reasons laid out here. But a sizable chunk of the electorate both supports Trump and believes he committed a serious crime. Those crossovers say they're voting for him anyway. A majority of voters, including one-in-five Biden backers, do not think the "serious crimes" warrant prison time. Trump's sentencing by the Biden donor judge in the case is July 11, days before the Republican National Convention. More morsels from the Times data:
Roughly 70 percent of voters view Mr. Biden as too old to be effective, including a majority of Biden voters. Those figures are virtually unchanged since April...In contrast, only about 40 percent of voters view Mr. Trump as too old...Inflation and the economy continued to be the top issues for voters, and they overwhelmingly thought Mr. Trump would better handle the crucial economic concerns. Still, a rising share of voters, including a not insignificant number of Democrats, said immigration was the most important issue to them. And these voters were six times likelier to say Mr. Trump was better suited to handle the issue. For Hispanic voters, immigration topped the economy as the most important issue. More thought Mr. Trump could better address immigration concerns...When asked which candidate would do better on whatever issue happened to matter most to them, 51 percent said Mr. Trump, compared to 37 percent for Mr. Biden...Mr. Biden has regularly performed more strongly with consistent voters, and that was also true in this poll. Mr. Trump was winning 49 percent of registered voters who did not vote four years ago, compared to 30 percent for Mr. Biden.
There's a lot to unpack in that relatively short passage, isn't there? Seven in ten voters say Biden is too old, which has been a high and consistent number, unchanged for months. Most Biden voters even agree with this. The top issue is the economy and inflation, and Trump has a commanding lead in that realm. Many voters also cite immigration as a top concern. Among Hispanics, immigration is the number one issue, and they trust Trump on it more than Biden. Just flipping conventional wisdom on its head. Overall, by a 14-point margin, people say they believe Trump will better handle their prioritized issue, whatever it may be. Red flags galore for the Biden campaign. And then there was this:
Nate Silver's first forecast of this election season gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning at the moment.https://t.co/kMOSPZSDRO pic.twitter.com/Zf2674lqx8
— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) June 26, 2024
As Matt noted last night, Silver himself is saying that as of right now, "the presidential election isn't a toss-up." I find these models to be a bit silly, and they generally got 2016 terribly wrong, but the ultimate left-leaning data framing 2024 this way is psychological blow to Democrats. Add up Silver's initial forecast, the New York Times survey, and Gallup showing Biden at 38 percent approval (33 percent among independents), and all the makings for a full-blown panic are actively in the mix. If Biden turns in a relatively decent showing tonight, he can perhaps quell the concerns. If he fares badly, or has a disastrous "moment," things could get very volatile. The stakes were already high for both campaigns. Trump could hurt himself and damage his relatively strong position. But Biden could be teetering. A lot is riding on how he performs. Given the context of polling and storylines breaking just before the debate, the stakes just got even higher for him. The pressure is on. Relatedly, I'll leave you with this:
Democrats would run into legal issues with state ballot laws if they try to drop Joe Biden as the party's presidential nominee. https://t.co/qbAMmtOx8F
— Oversight Project (@OversightPR) June 26, 2024
