Last week, the Florida Supreme Court issued a series of rulings on the state's abortion laws, which included allowing a pro-abortion initiative to show up on the November ballot. The pro-abortion White House, which has made the issue a top priority for President Joe Biden's reelection campaign, was quick to respond, as were other Democrats. There was even a hope that it meant Florida was in play for the 2024 election. But, a recent poll from Emerson College released on Thursday suggests otherwise.
Biden enjoys just 38 percent support, while former and potentially future President Donald Trump has 51 percent support among registered voters in the Sunshine State. Eleven percent were undecided. When pushed to choose one of the two, Trump's led by almost the same margin, 56-44 percent.
FLORIDA POLL
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) April 11, 2024
2024 Presidential Election
51% Trump
38% Biden
11% undecided
With undecided push:
56% Trump
44% Bidenhttps://t.co/FwsKYA2Agx pic.twitter.com/WXZ9lyNBCU
Trump won Florida in 2016 by 49 percent to Hillary Clinton's 47.8 percent. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis also won his 2018 gubernatorial race by a particularly narrow margin. The state has since become reliably redder, however. Trump won Florida again in 2020, this time with 51.2 percent to Biden's 47.9 percent. Even while the rest of the country might not have experienced the red wave that had been predicted in 2022, DeSantis won reelection by historic margins, with close to 60 percent, a lead of nearly 20 points over Charlie Crist, running as a Democrat this time. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) also won reelection with a similar lead of close to 17 points against former Rep. Val Demings.
Not only has Florida become increasingly red, but DeSantis, who ran in the Republican presidential primary himself against Trump before dropping out and endorsing him ahead of the New Hampshire Republican Primary in January, is fundraising for the presumptive nominee. Attorney General Ashley Moody also argued against the initiative being allowed to make it on the ballot in November, in what was ultimately a split 4-3 decision.
Nevertheless, the Biden reelection campaign is still hopeful. "Biden campaign announces it will target flipping Trump’s Florida," The Hill reported later that same day as the ruling came down. Just a day later, another headline covered how "Biden calls Florida court ruling on abortion 'outrageous.'" Yet another headline, this one from a few days after that, read that "Democrats see abortion and marijuana juicing youth vote in Florida," referring to another ballot initiative.
As The Hill explained about the Biden campaign:
Campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a memo that investing in Florida is part of the Biden campaign’s pathway to 270 electoral votes. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2020 with more than 51 percent, compared to Biden’s 48 percent.
...
Chavez Rodriguez outlined that abortion will be on the ballot in Florida, where the state Supreme Court issued a ruling that puts a six-week ban into effect May 1. Democrats see abortion as a winning issue for them in 2024 after experiencing better-than-expected results in the midterm elections months after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
“This new, extreme abortion ban – one that Donald Trump personally paved the way for – will now amount to a ban for the entire Southeast. Women in need of reproductive care throughout the region now face a choice between putting their lives at risk or traveling hundreds or thousands of miles to get care,” she said.
Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris had already been firing off pro-abortion posts from their X accounts the day the decisions came down. Sure enough, when the court allowed for the initiative to appear on the ballot, as well as the 15-week abortion limit to go forward, paving the way for the heartbeat bill that DeSantis signed into law last April, the reaction from the White House was swift and severe.
When it comes to this issue that is often top of mind for both the Biden White House and reelection campaign, Biden the following day released a statement calling the decision "outrageous" and engaged in all sorts of fearmongering.
"Vice President Harris and I stand with the vast majority of Americans who support a woman’s right to choose, including in Florida, where voters will have the opportunity to make their voices heard in support of a reproductive freedom ballot initiative this November. We remain steadfast in our commitment to protecting reproductive freedom in Florida and across the nation and will continue to call on Congress to pass a law restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade in every state," the statement concluded with, referencing the Women's Health Protection Act (WHPA), which in reality would expand Roe by legalizing abortion in all 50 states up until birth for any reason without limit.
Yesterday’s extreme Florida Supreme Court decision puts desperately needed medical care even further out of reach for millions of women in Florida and across the South.
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) April 2, 2024
It’s outrageous—and it was made possible by Trump ending Roe v. Wade.
The decision to allow Florida's abortion ban to remain in effect will harm not just the women of Florida but also millions more women who might have traveled to the state to seek reproductive health services.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) April 2, 2024
Trump created this health care crisis.@JoeBiden and I will do…
Earlier on Friday, even after the poll had already been released, The Washington Post still published an article detailing how "Biden team increasingly hopes to ride the abortion issue to victory." The state is only briefly mentioned in that "Democrats also point to abortion-related ballot initiatives as helpful to their Biden’s electoral prospects. Florida has approved a ballot initiative that would enshrine the right to abortion in the state’s constitution," though there's no mention of the poll.
But, but, but the mainstream media kept telling us that the abortion ballot question gave the Democrats a chance to win Florida this November...https://t.co/90deLYGYYn
— Michael New (@Michael_J_New) April 11, 2024
The poll's results also shows what at first might not seem like the best news for the pro-life movement, as a plurality of voters, at 42 percent, say they support the pro-abortion initiative. However, there's another sign of hope for pro-lifers when it comes to Florida, beyond how increasingly Republican the state is. Unlike other red states where pro-abortion initiatives have passed, like Ohio, there is a 60 percent threshold. Twenty-five percent say they plan to vote no, and 32 percent are undecided.
When asked about the poll results, Dr. Michael New of the Charlotte Lozier Institute, offered a statement of caution in a statement to Townhall.
"It is often unwise to read to much into the results of one single poll. That said, the results of this poll are still good news for pro-lifers. A body of polling data from both Ohio and Michigan showed that ballot propositions supporting legal abortion failed to appreciably gain public support during the course campaign," he explained. "As such, the fact this ballot measure is polling 18 points behind the 60 percent threshold it would need to prevail demonstrates that pro-lifers have a strong chance to prevail in November."
Emerson conducted the poll April 9-10 with 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Perhaps the Biden reelection campaign will return to the perception that Florida isn't as important after all, as some have felt due to the campaign's lack of outreach efforts, including when it comes to the state's Hispanic population.
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