Today begins the official start of the Democratic presidential primary, which takes place in South Carolina. This is despite how Republicans are about to hold contests in the third state, with the Nevada Republican Caucus and Nevada Republican Primary. Former and potentially future President Donald Trump has already won Iowa and New Hampshire, and remains the clear frontrunner. President Joe Biden and the DNC, however, decided that they needed to shake things up for 2024, and that meant stripping Iowa and New Hampshire of their firsts on the calendar.
The reason why is supposed to be about diversity. This is the Democrats we're talking about here.
What White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was willing to say about the matter during the December 5, 2022 press briefing focused on the diversity aspect.
"But again, as a candidate in 2020 and, as we have heard the night of New Hampshire primary, Joe Biden was very clear that, to him, respecting our diversity as a nation and breaking down barriers for our people is a fundamental principle," she claimed. And--and so, he believes that what Democrats in office stand for--and he has upheld that principle as president." Jean-Pierre also added that "and so, again, you’ve seen him do that throughout his almost two years in administration, making sure that we see the diversity within his administration that is represented clearly across--across the country" as she noted Biden "wants to honor those values."
South Carolina wasn't the only state Democrats were considering, with states like Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota trying to push their way in, while Iowa was looking to remain the first state. It does, however, make the most sense.
Biden lost the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries in 2020, coming in third and fifth, respectively. He won the South Carolina primary, however, on February 29, 2020, which truly jumpstarted his presidential campaign. And Biden notably did so with the help of Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), then the House Majority Whip.
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It makes sense plenty of sense that Biden and the DNC would want to reward Clyburn. Jaime Harrison, the DNC chairman who ran a losing campaign against Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham that year, is also from South Carolina.
Biden will almost certainly win the South Carolina primary again, especially now that he's the incumbent. Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota don't stand a chance with their primary challenge to Biden; their time to shine was in New Hampshire late last month.
Iowa Democrats caved. Their caucus will be through a mail-in system when it comes to selecting the presidential nominee. Voter preferences must be postmarked by March 5, on Super Tuesday. Not only did Iowa Democrats lose their first in the nation status, but they're being lumped in together with when 15 other states and territories vote.
New Hampshire, however, held both the Republican and Democratic primaries on January 23, a decision that Secretary of State David Scanlan had announced last November. While New Hampshire has a Republican governor, Chris Sununu, and Republican majorities in the state legislature, with the majority in the State House even growing, its Congressional delegation is made up of Democrats. Those senators and members of Congress were none too pleased.
It was a move that led to Democrats in disarray, with Biden not even officially on the ballot in New Hampshire. He may have won through a write-in campaign, but he still won't win any delegates. While the president wasn't expected to even address such a win, his reelection campaign did put out a statement, and his campaign staff held a press call the following morning in which they ranted against Trump and MAGA Republicans.
Biden was always going to win the South Carolina Democratic primary. There are too many factors in his favor, and again, not merely because he's the incumbent. He's likely alienated Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire, with the former going from a swing state to more reliably Republican and the latter being somewhat purple.
Of course, this isn't even the only move that has Democrats in disarray. Biden is losing reelection to Trump in the polls. Pollsters like Frank Luntz also think a loss for Biden is indeed a likelihood, especially if the political landscape continues as it is. Many voters, including Biden's fellow Democrats, think Biden is too old and not enough there mentally to serve enough term, and they want someone else. Yet Biden is still supposedly running for reelection. For however much Phillps has made that argument, he's still not gaining enough traction to really given Biden a run for his money with such a primary challenge.
Biden can enjoy his primary win in South Carolina on Saturday, but it still represents a rocky political climate of Democrats in disarray for 2024.
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