The 2024 election is looking to be close, especially if it's a rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden. It's also likely that the election will be won in battleground states. Polling continues to show that Trump has the edge in those states, and it's something even the mainstream media has noticed.
Michigan presents a unique opportunity. The state voted for the Democratic nominee in five of the last six presidential elections. Trump won the state in 2016 by 47.5 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton's 47.3 percent, and ultimately the election. In 2020, Michigan voted for Biden with 50.6 percent of the vote to Trump's 47.8 percent. It's not going to be easy for Biden to win the state again, however.
Concerns for Biden in this particular state were recently addressed with the release of a poll commissioned by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, which was full of bad news.
During Sunday's episode of CNN's "Inside Politics," host Manu Raju brought up the role that Michigan will play in the presidential election. He also spoke to Michigan Democrats on Capitol Hill, including Rep. Dan Kildee of Michigan's 8th Congressional District, who wasted no time demonizing Republican Michiganders.
Upon being asked, "How concerned are you that the president is struggling in your state?" Kildee acknowledged, "We've got work to do," adding, "There's no question about it." But then he went on to lash out against Trump supporters. "Former President Trump's supporters are rabid. They're religious about their support for him. A lot of the challenges we're having right now is just bringing Democrats home, getting that enthusiasm up again," the congressman offered.
Recommended
Democratic Rep. Hillary Scholten of the state's 3rd Congressional District also weighed in.
"You know, obviously, we see the polls, and they're not good, but you know, we see a trend happening, particularly in the west side of the state, where individuals are increasingly rejecting the type of extremism that is embodied in today's Republican Party," she shared. She was also certain that Biden can "absolutely not" win the presidency without Michigan, and she mentioned in particular, "I don't think he can win without West Michigan."
During a panel discussion, CNN's Jeff Zeleny went with the Democratic narrative of whining that Biden wasn't getting enough credit.
He insisted that the Biden team was "concerned about it," adding, "The reality is the Michigan voters have really not given the Biden administration any credit or the president credit for, you know, the biggest union deal in history. He went out and walked the picket line. He's got zero credit for that. His infrastructure plan, so many projects in Michigan, zero credit for that."
Zeleny also acknowledged Michigan voters aren't too keen on Biden. "The reality is they just do not see him as the person they want leading the party. So what the Biden campaign is hoping for, is that they, Democrats, sort of become energized because of that Trump excitement. They're hoping that that sort of brings their voters home. It's a tall order. They know that they also have to excite their own base," he added.
From there came a thoughtful point about how "one of the reasons that Trump is as strong as he is, because Biden is as weak as he is," as Zeleny even added, "The argument about electability that Trump can't win has been largely erased," noting "that is a big challenge for the Biden campaign."
Zeleny added that Biden's reelection team believes a Biden-Trump rematch "will bring some Democrats home" while still admitting that building a coalition of Biden voters from certain demographics, namely young people, is "a big, big challenge." Raju also acknowledged the issue of "voter apathy."
Polls show Democratic voters are less than enthusiastic about President Biden running for a second term – and party leaders in Michigan are sounding the alarm on voter turnout. @KannoYoungs @jeffzeleny break it down with @mkraju #InsidePolitics pic.twitter.com/YakDLYjqqw
— Inside Politics (@InsidePolitics) January 21, 2024
CNN analysis in the past has highlighted Michigan's status as a key state. Last month, in light of its own poll showing how Trump looked to be doing well in the battleground states of Michigan and Georgia, CNN published an analysis pointing out that "Joe Biden has an electoral math problem to solve," with the first point being, "Georgia plus Michigan plus one more = a Trump win."
RealClearPolitics (RCP) took notice of the president's issues in Michigan, as well, featuring The Wall Street Journal's "Biden Has a Michigan Problem, Endangering His Re-Election" in its Monday morning edition.
While Kildee is conveniently retiring and Scholten is only a freshman, fellow Democratic Michigander Rep. Elissa Slotkin is also mentioned, as she seeks higher office. "Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is seeking to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the state's Senate race, has expressed concerns that Biden's bad poll numbers could hurt her race and other down-ballot contests, according to people who have spoken with her," the WSJ mentioned in its opening paragraph.
The report delved further into the issues Biden is facing:
When asked if Biden deserved re-election, the [Detroit News and WDIV-TV] poll found the president underperforming significantly among Black voters, voters between the ages of 18-29 and those holding college degrees. The vast majority of independent voters in the poll didn’t believe Biden had earned re-election while about one-third of those surveyed felt Trump deserved a second term.
A December poll by CNN showed Trump leading Biden in the state, 50% to 40%. The gaps are striking given that, in 2022, Michigan’s Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was re-elected with 54.5%, more than 10 points ahead of her Republican rival, and Democrats took control of the state legislature for the first time in four decades.
“The level of concern is growing and it should be,” said Adrian Hemond, a Lansing-based Democratic strategist. “The problem is not policy. The problem is the man.”
Trump captured Michigan in 2016, defeating Hillary Clinton by less than 11,000 votes to become the first Republican to win the state since 1988. Biden carried it by more than 150,000 votes in 2020. Voter turnout in Michigan increased to 70.5% in 2020—the highest since 1960.
But the pro-Biden coalition from 2020 has been strained by recent events. The president’s support for Israel following the October attacks by Hamas has drawn rebukes from the state’s Arab-American community and on college campuses, raising the possibility that a prolonged war in Gaza could depress turnout and support from some of those voters.
Meanwhile, months of higher prices and elevated inflation have worn on the state’s voters, who rate the nation’s economy poorly and identify it as their top issue, according to recent polling.
The state's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and her appearance on CBS News' "Face the Nation" was also mentioned.
Especially as Whitmer and host Margaret Brennan discussed how Biden should be more vocal on abortion to gain more support – something his party supports for all nine months for any reason without legal limit – the governor noted, "I'm not dismissing polls," adding, "I think that they are an important piece of data that should inform additional outreach."
She did, however, say, "I'm not freaking out," as she spoke more to the "urgency" she hears. "What I hear from people is a sense of urgency, a sense of how serious this moment is in this country. And I respect that and know that's why we've got to continue to show up and continue to talk about these fundamental issues that Americans and American families need solved," she noted.
The two also discussed Michigan "staying blue," to which the governor replied, "I think everyone should always focus on Michigan. It's always going to be close in this state." She noted, "You cannot make any assumptions about what the next election is going to bring, based on the last one in a state like this. You got to show up, you got to do the work and show people that you really care about them."
Whitmer also "absolutely" believes Michigan is still a purple state as well as that it "absolutely" is "still up for play" and thinks "it always will be."
Say what you will about Whitmer, but she makes quite a thoughtful point. She was reelected in 2022 by more than 10 points, flipped the state legislatures from red to blue, and is in the top half of most popular governors.
When asked if the Democratic push on abortion rights can boost low enthusiasm for President Biden, @GovWhitmer says, "I'm not dismissing polls," but adds, "I'm not freaking out."
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 21, 2024
"We’ve got to continue to show up and continue to talk about these fundamental issues." pic.twitter.com/46CMd6LG0g
Not only is Michigan a swing state, but it also has a heavily Muslim and Arab population. While the CNN panel didn't get into it, the WSJ report did:
The war between Israel and Hamas has injected a wrinkle into the race for Michigan’s 15 electoral votes because of the state’s large community of Arab- and Jewish-American voters. More than half of the residents of Dearborn, a city of more than 100,000, are of Arab-American or North African descent.
Even beyond the state’s pro-Palestinian community, party activists note a multiracial coalition of support for the Palestinians in Gaza and worries that a prolonged conflict could damage Biden’s chances.
“It’s costing him here in Michigan,” said David Haener, a Democrat from New Boston, Mich. “I wish he would see that he’s leaving a huge demographic behind.”
Brennan also spoke to Michigan voters in a focus group, including Thasin, who said that the president's stance on what's happening in the Israel-Hamas war is a "deal breaker."
As Thasin revealed, "I was a champion for Joe Biden until October 7th. I feel he's disowned us, disenfranchised us with his stance on Gaza." Pressed for more, he offered, "[Biden's] not listening to us. We are asking for a ceasefire this time. It's a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Too many lives are being lost at this time. I was never a single-issue voter. In fact, I used to argue with people not to be single-issue voters. But, for me, this is a deal breaker. Way too many lives have been lost." He confirmed he was saying so as a Muslim.
When asked, "You think the Muslim community here feels as you do?" Thasin confirmed as much as well. "Yes. I think a vast majority of Muslims, Arab Americans, are," he shared, noting he identifies as a progressive. "And many people that I talk to in my circles do not--are not going to be voting for Joe Biden.
What was not mentioned is that on October 7, Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, resulting in 1,200 Israelis killed. The terrorists also engaged in torture, rape, and kidnapping. Further, a ceasefire only benefits Hamas, which broke a ceasefire not only with the October 7 attack but more recently when there was a temporary one in place to allow for hostage negotiations and prisoner exchanges.
In our focus group of Michigan voters, Thasin tells @margbrennan he "was a champion" for President Biden, but now feels Biden has "disowned" and "disenfranchised" Muslim Americans with his stance on Gaza.
— Face The Nation (@FaceTheNation) January 21, 2024
"I was never a single-issue voter...but for me this is a deal-breaker." pic.twitter.com/4cwmuYbNbo
Biden is facing pushback from voters regarding his trip to Michigan, as Matt has covered, and Whitmer acknowledged the president "may" face protesters there.
Even if not all of these voters switch over to Trump, if they stay home, that could negatively impact the president, too, especially in what Whitmer acknowledges is a close race.
Late last year, the Arab American Institute released a poll on "Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Outbreak of Violence in Palestine/Israel," which showed a plurality of respondents, 40 percent, chose Trump.
In Michigan, Biden currently has just a 33 percent approval rating, while 59 percent disapprove, according to Civiqs. RCP currently has Trump up by +5.3 in Michigan against Biden, with 46 percent to Biden's 40.7 percent support.
