On Monday, former and potentially future President Donald Trump pulled off a massive victory in the Iowa Republican Caucus, winning with 51 percent of the vote. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in a distant second with 21.2 percent. The New Hampshire Republican Primary is next Tuesday, a state Trump is also likely to win, although some polls show former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley with a chance. Following Iowa's results, there's been an increase in calls that the GOP primary race is over, and it's time to coalesce around supporting Trump. This includes some DeSantis supporters as well. Is a Trump nomination what the Republican voters and American electorate overall want? It's looking increasingly likely.
The Republican primary polls, including for individual states, have shown Trump with a massive lead for some time now, making his nomination, should it, in fact, be his, not surprising. But, there have also been polls showing that the American people are less than thrilled with the idea of a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden. This comes even as they have other choices, but polls nevertheless show Trump prevailing in his primary and Biden in his.
"Enough of these two guys may represent a fairly popular sentiment within the country writ large, but within the Republican primary context, it has been falling flat," Guy wrote when discussing Haley's strategy.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll asked Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who they'd be satisfied with and found that Trump enjoyed the most support. When respondents were asked, "Would you be satisfied or dissatisfied with each of the following as the Republican nominee for president in 2024?" 75 percent said they'd be satisfied with Trump, while 64 percent said so about DeSantis, and 50 percent said so about Haley. The ABC News headline highlights how this is good news for the New Hampshire primary, noting, "Days before New Hampshire primary, most Republicans would be satisfied with Trump as 2024 nominee."
Trump's support has gone up after his Iowa win, showing that has had an effect, with a headline from Ipsos highlighting, "Republicans increasingly feel Trump has the best chance at winning the presidency."
Respondents were asked to select which candidate best fit certain attributes, including which "Best represents your own personal values," "Is the strongest leader," "Best understands the problems of people like you," "Is best qualified to serve as president," and "Has the best chance of getting elected president in November." The question also specifically asked respondents to share their thoughts "Regardless of who you may prefer for the nomination."
Trump's numbers are up in every category from the poll conducted on January 8 and January 17. A majority of respondents, 54 percent, said Trump best represents their values, 73 percent said he's the strongest leader, 59 percent said he best understands, 63 percent said he's best qualified, and 80 percent said he has the best chance. Those numbers were at 45 percent, 65 percent, 46 percent, 54 percent, and 68 percent, respectively, showing a double-digit increase for nearly every attribute.
Although DeSantis' numbers went up slightly in every other category, the number of respondents saying he had the best chance went down from 11 percent to 9 percent. Haley's numbers went down in every category, though she still fares better than DeSantis in that 10 percent say she has the best chance.
Trump, DeSantis, and Haley's favorable ratings all went up after the Iowa Caucus, though not by much. Trump remains the most favorable, with a 72 percent favorable rating.
The poll was conducted January 16-17, with 1,480 Republican and Republican-leaning Americans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
When it comes to polls surveying respondents about the general election in a hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, Trump has an edge there, too. While 44 percent of voters in this week's poll from The Economist/YouGov would choose Biden, compared to the 43 percent who would choose Trump, more still think that Trump will actually win.
"Regardless of who you prefer, who do you think would win the presidential election if Joe Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate?" respondents were asked.
Overall, respondents chose Trump by 45-32 percent, while registered voters did so by 45-37 percent. While Biden voters and Democrats still chose Biden, they're less confident than Trump voters and Republicans.
Seventy percent of Biden voters and 73 percent of Democrats believe that the incumbent president will win, while 84 percent of Trump voters and Republicans believe that the former president will.
That poll was conducted between January 14-16 with 1,660 U.S. adults. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent for total respondents and plus or minus 2.8 percent for registered voters.
RealClearPolling still has Trump ahead by +51.3 to win the Republican nomination and by +1.6 to win the general election against Biden, a number which has fluctuated and will likely continue to do so.
For those unsatisfied, there's only been one Republican nominating contest, and Democrats haven't even started theirs yet. It also looks like 2028 will be a completely different matchup. Biden can't run again if he wins in November, and it's unlikely he'll try to run again if he doesn't, especially since he'll be close to 86 years old come the 2028 election. Trump also can't run again if he wins in 2024, which will hand him his second term.
If DeSantis doesn't emerge victorious this time around, it's worth remembering how well he fared against California Governor Gavin Newsom in the Red State vs. Blue State debate hosted by Fox News's Sean Hannity. The debate was full of not only positive viral moments from DeSantis but also negative ones from Newsom, especially how his wife stepped in to prevent the debate from being extended.
